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Hurricane Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-09-10 11:13:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 535 FONT14 KNHC 100912 CCA PWSAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 4(32) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 2(29) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 2(36) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 36(44) 2(46) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 7(40) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 38(47) 2(49) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 32(42) 1(43) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 1(32) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 1(23) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) X(24) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-09-10 11:12:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 806 WTNT24 KNHC 100911 CCA TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 CORRECTED INTENSITY FORECAST THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 42.7W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 42.7W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 42.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.8N 44.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.0N 47.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.0N 50.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.3N 58.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 15.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 15.6N 69.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 42.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-10 10:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10 the center of Isaac was located near 14.7, -42.7 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Isaac Public Advisory Number 11
2018-09-10 10:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 720 WTNT34 KNHC 100840 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...ISAAC HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 42.7W ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Isaac. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaac was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 42.7 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast through the end of the week. On the forecast track, Isaac is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or two. Weakening is forecast to begin by the middle of the week as Isaac approaches the Lesser Antilles. Isaac is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-09-10 04:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 684 WTNT44 KNHC 100256 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 Isaac's IR satellite presentation has generally improved since the last advisory. While there is no evidence of an eye in conventional satellite imagery, the most recent microwave imagery around 2100 UTC indicated the presence of a pinhole eye. Dvorak intensity estimates are T4.0 from both TAFB and SAB, and on this basis Isaac has been upgraded to a hurricane, the 5th of the 2018 Atlantic season and 3rd in the past few days. I must stress that all aspects of the forecast are highly uncertain at this time. The dynamical track model spread is nearly 1000 miles at day 5, while the intensity guidance spread is nearly 100 kt. Although the NHC track and intensity forecasts have not been changed very much, this should not be interpreted as increasing confidence in the forecast. With regard to track, there is a clear split in the model guidance regarding the speed of Isaac. The GFS and ECMWF models forecast that a mid-level ridge to the north will accelerate the hurricane westward for the next 36 h, with a westward motion continuing through day 5 as the ridge is reinforced in the wake of Florence. On the other hand, the UKMET and HWRF models show a weakness developing in the ridge which causes Isaac to move much slower, and eventually turn northward. The NHC forecast has been favoring the former solution, and continues to do so with this advisory since I see no reason to make a drastic change to the forecast at this point. Isaac is a very small hurricane, which makes the intensity forecast particularly tricky since small storms are susceptible to rapid changes of intensity, up and down. Since the wind shear is expected to remain low, and Isaac is forecast to remain over fairly warm SSTs for the next 48 h, the current forecast of further intensification seems reasonable, and the NHC forecast is still at the top end of the guidance envelope. From 72 h onward, there could be a sudden, and substantial increase in wind shear associated first with an upper-level trough to the north, and later with the outflow of Hurricane Florence. Assuming this shear affects Isaac as expected, the tiny hurricane would likely weaken quickly, perhaps even faster than currently shown in the forecast. By the end of the forecast period, the NHC forecast remains a fair amount below the intensity consensus, closer to the weakening solutions of the GFS and ECMWF. Key Messages: 1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the forecast is higher than normal. Although Isaac is forecast to begin weakening by Tuesday when it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the islands. 2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 14.5N 41.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 14.7N 43.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 14.9N 46.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 15.0N 49.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 15.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 15.2N 57.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 15.5N 63.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 15.5N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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