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Hurricane Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-13 10:57:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Oct 2017 08:57:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Oct 2017 09:23:16 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-13 10:50:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OPHELIA MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 13 the center of Ophelia was located near 31.1, -33.9 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 17
2017-10-13 10:49:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 13 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 130849 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0900 UTC FRI OCT 13 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 33.9W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 33.9W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 34.4W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.8N 32.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.1N 29.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 35.0N 25.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 35SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 37.9N 20.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 200SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 47.9N 13.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...100NE 130SE 110SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 270SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 57.5N 6.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...EAST OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 33.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-13 04:55:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Oct 2017 02:55:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Oct 2017 03:25:46 GMT
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-10-13 04:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130250 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017 Remarkably, the hurricane has continued to strengthen this evening. Satellite images indicate that cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled in the past several hours, with a warm eye remaining. Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB and CIMSS range between 90 to 95 kt, so the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt. It seems that the marginal SSTs that Ophelia has been moving over have been offset by the cold upper-level temperatures and low shear environment. SSTs only slightly cool in the next 24 hours with similar shear conditions, so a minor decrease in strength is in the forecast. After that time, while the hurricane should move over colder waters, it will likely be accelerating to the northeast and experiencing favorable mid-latitude jet dynamics, which will help to maintain the cyclone's intensity. All of the guidance show extratropical transition by 3 days with the cyclone keeping hurricane-force winds, as indicated in the new forecast. Little change was made to the previous prediction, except to account for the higher initial wind speed. Ophelia is finally moving, estimated at 6 kt to the east-northeast. This general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days as the hurricane gets picked up by a large mid-latitude trough. Confidence in the track forecast remains fairly high for the first 72 h, although the spread increases after that time. The GFS-based guidance generally then show a more northward track to the west of Ireland then over the far North Atlantic, while the UKMET/ECMWF show a track over Ireland and Great Britain then eastward and dissipating over northern Europe. The forecast is close to the consensus at long range, but some large changes could be required for later forecasts. While the NHC track keeps the center of Ophelia south and east of the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores by Saturday night due to an approaching front. In addition, the wind field of Ophelia will likely expand as the cyclone begins extratropical transition, and any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring stronger winds to the islands. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post- tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas, as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts. Residents in Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of Ophelia for the next several days. For more information on local impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 30.7N 34.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 31.2N 33.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 32.2N 31.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 33.7N 27.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 36.0N 23.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 45.0N 14.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 17/0000Z 56.0N 7.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 18/0000Z 64.0N 0.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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