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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-10-28 09:33:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 28 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280833 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 0900 UTC MON OCT 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.6N 17.5W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 420SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.6N 17.5W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.4N 17.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 47.3N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 48.1N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.6N 17.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-10-28 03:38:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280238 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, deep convection associated with Pablo finally began to decrease in both coverage and organization. Convection has become confined to the southern portion of the circulation and the eye is no longer apparent in conventional satellite imagery, although a low-level eye feature was still noted in a recent GMI microwave overpass. The initial intensity has been reduced to 60 kt, which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB. Pablo is approaching a frontal boundary that lies just to the north of the cyclone, and is also moving over SSTs of around 17C. This should cause the deep convection to continue to wane overnight, and Pablo is expected to become extratropical when it merges with the aforementioned front on Tuesday. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a much larger extratropical low to its west by Tuesday morning. Recent microwave and satellite fixes show that Pablo's forward speed has begun to slow as expected, and its initial motion is now north or 360/12 kt. The dynamical models indicate that Pablo will continue to decelerate overnight as it moves generally northward. A slow northward motion should then continue on Monday as Pablo merges with the frontal zone and becomes post-tropical. The 12- and 24-h forecast wind radii were adjusted outward to account for the area of gale-force winds north of the frontal boundary that Pablo is expected to merge with late Monday or early Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 46.0N 17.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 47.0N 17.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 29/0000Z 48.2N 17.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Pablo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-10-28 03:38:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 28 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 280238 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM PABLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 0300 UTC MON OCT 28 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PABLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 17.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Pablo (AT3/AL182019)
2019-10-28 03:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PABLO WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TUESDAY MORNING... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Oct 27 the center of Pablo was located near 46.0, -17.1 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Pablo Public Advisory Number 10
2019-10-28 03:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 280238 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 ...PABLO WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TUESDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...46.0N 17.1W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was located near latitude 46.0 North, longitude 17.1 West. Pablo is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northward motion is expected later tonight and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Pablo should transition to a post-tropical cyclone Monday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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