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Summary for Tropical Storm Pablo (AT3/AL182019)
2019-10-27 03:32:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SMALL PABLO ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE AZORES... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 26 the center of Pablo was located near 38.2, -22.6 with movement NE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-10-27 03:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270232 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 0300 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 22.6W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 40SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 180SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 22.6W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 23.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 41.0N 20.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 44.1N 19.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 46.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...250NE 50SE 50SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 47.1N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.2N 22.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Pablo Graphics
2019-10-26 22:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2019 20:33:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2019 21:24:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-10-26 22:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 262031 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 Pablo has become a little better organized during the past several hours, with a small eye becoming somewhat better defined. However, the various satellite intensity estimates have remained near 45 kt. Based on the increased organization since the the 40-45 kt winds seen in earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is now set at 50 kt. Pablo has turned northeastward and accelerated, with the initial motion now 055/22. This motion should bring the small core of the storm near or over the eastern Azores during the next several hours. After that, the tropical storm should turn northward and eventually northwestward as a developing mid-latitude low to the west becomes the dominant steering mechanism. The guidance has shifted a bit to the east since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to, but east of, the previous forecast. Pablo should slow weaken as it moves into an environment of colder sea surface temperatures and increasing shear, and a developing frontal zone near the cyclone should lead to the system becoming extratropical by 36 h. The global models continue to forecast the system to merge with the mid-latitude low to the west between 48-72 h, so the intensity forecast again shows dissipation during that time. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 36.3N 25.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 39.3N 22.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 42.7N 20.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 44.9N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/1800Z 46.3N 21.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Pablo (AT3/AL182019)
2019-10-26 22:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PABLO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 26 the center of Pablo was located near 36.3, -25.6 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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