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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-10-26 10:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260837 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 Pablo remains a small cyclone, and recently the eye-like feature that was noted in earlier satellite images is no longer evident. Since the system continues to have an area of deep convection concentrated near the center, it should still be classified as a tropical cyclone. The current intensity is held at 40 kt, in general agreement with the most recent estimate from TAFB, and pending a new scatterometer overpass. Pablo is embedded within a much larger cyclonic circulation that is also producing gale-force winds well to the north and northwest of the center. The tropical storm is moving a little south of east at around 8 kt. A turn toward the northeast and north is expected over the next couple of days as Pablo moves around the periphery of a large deep-layer trough over the eastern Atlantic The official forecast is a little faster than the previous one but slightly slower than the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so while Pablo moves through an environment that is unstable enough to support deep convection. However, by 36 hours the cyclone will be passing over waters of 18 deg C or colder. This should result in the system becoming an extratropical low around that time. In 2-3 days, the global models show the post-tropical low merging with a larger low over the north Atlantic. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 35.3N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 36.6N 27.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 39.5N 23.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 43.0N 21.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/0600Z 45.3N 21.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/0600Z 47.5N 22.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Pablo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-10-26 10:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 260836 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM PABLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PABLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 3 72(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) PONTA DELGADA 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Pablo (AT3/AL182019)
2019-10-26 10:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PABLO EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 26 the center of Pablo was located near 35.3, -30.3 with movement ESE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Pablo Public Advisory Number 3
2019-10-26 10:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260836 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 ...PABLO EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.3N 30.3W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 30.3 West. Pablo is moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the east is expected this morning, followed by a faster northeastward or north-northeastward motion later today and Sunday. On the forecast track, the small core of Pablo will pass near or over the Azores tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated, and Pablo is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Since Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-10-26 10:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 260835 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 30.3W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 30.3W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 30.7W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 36.6N 27.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 39.5N 23.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 43.0N 21.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 45.3N 21.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 47.5N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...300NE 0SE 0SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 30.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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