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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-10-28 03:36:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 28 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280236 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 0300 UTC MON OCT 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.0N 17.1W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.0N 17.1W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.6N 17.1W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 47.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 50SE 30SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 48.2N 17.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 50SE 0SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.0N 17.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Pablo Graphics
2019-10-27 21:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2019 20:33:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2019 20:33:39 GMT
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Hurricane Pablo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-10-27 21:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 272032 PWSAT3 HURRICANE PABLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 2100 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PABLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 17.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Hurricane Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-10-27 21:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 272032 TCDAT3 Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Pablo continues to have a remarkably impressive appearance for a tropical cyclone over such cold waters. The hurricane's eye remains evident in most satellite imagery channels, with a solid ring of cloud tops colder than 50C surrounding it. This maintenance of the deep convection can be attributed to an environment of very cold temperatures aloft, which can allow for the hurricane to remain intact over waters colder than those typically observed. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remains unchanged from 6 hours ago, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have increased slightly. The initial advisory intensity has been increased to 70 kt, and this could be a little conservative. There are strong low-level easterlies associated with a baroclinic zone and frontal boundary located a couple hundred miles north of Pablo. The hurricane is expected to begin interacting with this zone soon, which combined with even cooler waters should make the cyclone lose its tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours. The system is then expected to become absorbed by the circulation of a much larger low as it approaches from the west in a couple of days. The initial motion is now 020/20 kt. There is significant spread in the model guidance beyond 24 hours, as the ECMWF and UKMET turn the post-tropical cyclone to the northeast, while the remainder of the guidance turns it northwest. The official forecast follows the majority of the guidance and the previous forecast. In this scenario, Pablo is expected to turn northward and slow its forward motion tonight as it approaches the frontal zone. Then, a turn toward the northwest on Monday is expected as the larger low to its west begins to steer the cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 44.7N 17.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 46.5N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 47.7N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/0600Z 49.0N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Pablo (AT3/AL182019)
2019-10-27 21:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PABLO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 27 the center of Pablo was located near 44.7, -17.2 with movement NNE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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