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Summary for Hurricane Pablo (AT3/AL182019)
2019-10-27 15:49:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PABLO BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 27 the center of Pablo was located near 42.8, -18.3 with movement NNE at 32 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Pablo Public Advisory Number 8
2019-10-27 15:49:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 271449 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Pablo Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 ...PABLO BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.8N 18.3W ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pablo was located near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 18.3 West. Pablo is moving toward the north-northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h), and this motion should continue with a decrease in forward speed today. A turn toward the north and northwest and an additional decrease in forward speed are expected tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin this afternoon, and Pablo is expected to become post-tropical on Monday. Pablo remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Pablo Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-10-27 15:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 490 WTNT23 KNHC 271449 TCMAT3 HURRICANE PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 1500 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 18.3W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 28 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 40SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 360SE 360SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 18.3W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 18.8W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 45.3N 17.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 46.9N 17.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 47.9N 18.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...250NE 50SE 50SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 49.5N 20.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.8N 18.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Pablo Graphics
2019-10-27 09:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2019 08:34:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2019 09:24:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-10-27 09:32:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 270832 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Pablo has maintained a small mid-level eye feature for at least the past 18 hours, and the eye has also been evident in infrared imagery for the past 6 hours. The most recent Dvorak satellite intensity estimate was T3.0, which was held down due to constraints even though the eye pattern supports an intensity of 65 kt. Latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT and SATCON intensity estimates are T4.4/75 kt and 64 kt, respectively. Based on a blend of the TAFB and UW-CIMSS values, along with the 5- to 8-nmi-diameter eye, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt, which could be conservative due to the the cyclone's relatively fast forward speed. Pablo has continued to accelerate and the initial motion estimate is now 045/35 kt. The latest model guidance remains in good agreement that during the next 48 hours, Pablo should slow down while making a counter-clockwise track around the northeastern periphery of the larger extratropical low that the small cyclone is embedded within. The tightly packed guidance suite has shifted to the right of the previous advisory track, and the new NHC forecast track has been adjusted in that direction, close to the various consensus models. Pablo is currently located over 20 deg C sea-surface temperatures (SST), with colder water near 15 deg C ahead of the cyclone. Model forecast soundings indicate that mid- and upper-level temperatures will be warming, and when combined with the cooler SSTs, will result in stabilization of the troposphere. This will cause convection to steadily weaken and erode by 12 h, resulting in Pablo degenerating into a post-tropical extratropical low pressure system in 24 h, if not sooner. The small cyclone is forecast to dissipate or become absorbed by the larger parent extratropical low in the 48-72 h forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 40.7N 20.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 43.8N 17.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 46.2N 17.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 28/1800Z 46.9N 18.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/0600Z 48.3N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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