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Tropical Storm Pablo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2019-10-27 09:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 270832 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM PABLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 0900 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PABLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm Pablo (AT3/AL182019)

2019-10-27 09:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...PABLO STRENGTHENS WHILE ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE AZORES... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 27 the center of Pablo was located near 40.7, -20.0 with movement NE at 40 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Pablo Public Advisory Number 7

2019-10-27 09:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270831 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 ...PABLO STRENGTHENS WHILE ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.7N 20.0W ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM ENE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 20.0 West. Pablo is moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through this morning. A turn toward the north-northeast and north is forecast this afternoon and tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast to begin this afternoon, and Pablo is expected to become post-tropical by tonight or early Monday. Pablo remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Advisory Number 7

2019-10-27 09:31:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270831 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 0900 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 20.0W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 40SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 180SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 20.0W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 20.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 43.8N 17.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 46.2N 17.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 46.9N 18.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...250NE 50SE 50SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 48.3N 20.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.7N 20.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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