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Tropical Storm Pablo Graphics
2019-10-26 04:41:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2019 02:41:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2019 03:30:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-10-26 04:40:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260240 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019 Pablo continues to exhibit a tight circulation with an occasional eye feature evident in satellite images, which is why the system is classified a tropical storm. However, a larger look at the east Atlantic reveals that Pablo is a tiny feature within a broad extratropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is held at 40 kt, which is based on a recent ASCAT-C overpass that showed a small area of tropical-storm-force winds near the center. It should be noted that a much larger area of winds of about the same strength, associated with the parent extratropical low, exist to the north and west of Pablo. The small tropical storm is moving east-southeastward at 8 kt as the overall trough continues to dig in that direction. A turn to the east should occur by early Saturday, followed by a faster northeastward or north-northeastward motion by Saturday night, taking the cyclone across the Azores. By the end of the weekend and early next week, a slower northward motion seems likely before the storm is absorbed by another extratropical low to its west. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Pablo could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours while it remains in unstable conditions and over waters that should support some convection. However, the system is expected to move over sharply colder waters Saturday night and Sunday, and that should cause Pablo to lose its tropical characteristics. The models show the extratropical low dissipating or becoming absorbed by another extratropical low in a little more than 3 days. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 35.5N 31.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 35.6N 28.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 37.7N 25.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 41.2N 22.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/0000Z 44.0N 21.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/0000Z 47.3N 20.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Pablo (AT3/AL182019)
2019-10-26 04:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...COMPACT TROPICAL STORM PABLO HOLDING ITS STRENGTH OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 25 the center of Pablo was located near 35.5, -31.1 with movement ESE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Pablo Public Advisory Number 2
2019-10-26 04:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260239 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019 ...COMPACT TROPICAL STORM PABLO HOLDING ITS STRENGTH OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 31.1W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 31.1 West. Pablo is moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the east is expected overnight, followed by a faster northeastward or north-northeastward motion late Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the small core of Pablo will pass near or over the Azores by Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated, and Pablo is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Since Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Advisory Number 2
2019-10-26 04:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 260239 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 31.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 31.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 31.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 35.6N 28.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 37.7N 25.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 41.2N 22.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 44.0N 21.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 47.3N 20.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...300NE 0SE 0SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 31.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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