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Tropical Storm Pablo Public Advisory Number 5
2019-10-26 22:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 262031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 ...PABLO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.3N 25.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 25.6 West. Pablo is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north- northeast and north is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the small core of Pablo will pass near or over the eastern Azores during the next several hours. Maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Pablo is likely to become extratropical late Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Since Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-10-26 22:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 262031 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 25.6W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 10NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 25.6W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 26.6W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 39.3N 22.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 10NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 42.7N 20.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 50SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 44.9N 20.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 50SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 46.3N 21.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 25.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Pablo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-10-26 22:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 262031 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM PABLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PABLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Pablo Graphics
2019-10-26 16:41:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2019 14:41:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2019 14:41:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-10-26 16:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 261440 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 Pablo has changed little in organization since the last advisory. The small cyclone is maintaining an area of banded convection near the center, and there have been occasional appearances of an eye-like feature. Recent scatterometer overpasses show several wind vectors of 40-45 kt, so the initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 kt. The initial motion is now 090/14, a little faster than before. Pablo is expected to turn northeastward during the next few hours, with the small core of the storm passing near or over the eastern Azores tonight. After that, the tropical storm should turn northward and eventually northwestward as it, as well as the surrounding larger low pressure area, become steered by another mid-latitude low pressure area developing over the north central Atlantic. The first 24 h of the new forecast track is adjusted somewhat to the east of the previous track based on the initial position and motion, with only small changes made thereafter. The new track lies near the various consensus models. Little significant change in strength is expected during the next 24 h or so while Pablo moves through an environment that is unstable enough to support deep convection. After that time, colder sea surface temperatures, increasing shear, and a developing frontal zone near the cyclone should lead to the system becoming extratropical. The global models continue to forecast the system to merge with the mid-latitude low to the west between 48-72 h, so the intensity forecast shows dissipation during that time. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 35.2N 28.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 37.4N 25.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 40.8N 22.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 43.5N 21.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/1200Z 45.3N 21.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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