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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 22
2017-07-27 22:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 272038 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 ...IRWIN DRIFTING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 124.3W ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 124.3 West. Irwin is drifting westward near 2 mph (4 km/h), and little motion is anticipated during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today and tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2017-07-27 22:38:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 272038 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 4 21(25) 10(35) 11(46) 4(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 125W 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 22
2017-07-27 22:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 272037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.3W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.3W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.8N 124.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.7N 124.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.6N 125.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 124.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics
2017-07-27 16:40:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Jul 2017 14:40:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Jul 2017 15:35:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-07-27 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 271435 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Satellite images indicate that Irwin's cloud pattern has not changed very much since the last advisory. The low-level center appears to be located on the eastern edge of the deep convection due to the shear caused by Hilary's outflow. The Dvorak estimates still yield an initial intensity of 50 kt. The environment is neither hostile nor favorable for a significant change in strength for the next 48 hours. Thereafter, a steady weakening should begin as the circulation encounters cooler waters. By day four, a weaker Irwin should be very close to Hilary, and by day five, the two cyclones should have merged, with Hilary becoming the dominant feature. This is the solution provided by the ECMWF and GFS global models, and it reflected in the NHC forecast. Currently, Irwin is forecast to remain embedded within very light steering currents and only a small westward drift is anticipated during the next two days. After that time, Hilary should have already passed by the north of Irwin. The cyclone should then begin to move northward and northwestward around Hilary's circulation until the the merge occurrs. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope formed by the northernmost GFS and southernmost ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 15.0N 124.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 15.0N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 15.0N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 15.5N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 19.0N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 23.0N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH MERGING 120H 01/1200Z...MERGED WITH HILARY $$ Forecaster Avila
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