je.st
news
Tag: irwin
Tropical Storm IRWIN Public Advisory Number 24
2017-07-28 10:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 280838 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 ...IRWIN DRIFTING WESTWARD...A LITTLE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 124.8W ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 124.8 West. Irwin is drifting toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and little motion is expected through Saturday. A turn toward the the north-northeast to northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm IRWIN Forecast Advisory Number 24
2017-07-28 10:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 280838 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.8W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.8W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.7W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.9N 124.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.0N 124.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.7N 124.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.4N 124.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.0N 126.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 124.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics
2017-07-28 04:59:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Jul 2017 02:59:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Jul 2017 03:33:51 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
irwin
Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 23
2017-07-28 04:54:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280254 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Irwin's convective pattern has changed little since the previous advisory. A long curved but fragmented band of convection wraps almost 75 percent of the way around the circulation center, yielding a consensus Dvorak intensity estimate of T3.5/55 kt from both TAFB and SAB. However, objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC are T2.9/43 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, which are supported by an earlier UW-CIMSS AMSU estimate of 45 kt. Based on average of these estimates, the initial intensity has been held at 50 kt. The initial motion estimate is a slow drift toward the west, or 270/02 kt. For such weak steering currents, the latest NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on Irwin moving little for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a faster motion toward the north at 48 and 72 hours as the cyclone moves up the eastern and the northern sides of Tropical Storm Hilary. Irwin is then forecast to merge with Hilary by 96 hours. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. The overall environment surrounding Irwin is expected to change little before the cyclone merges with Tropical Storm Hilary, so only minor fluctuations in intensity are forecast, based primarily on slight changes in the vertical wind shear. The new forecast follows the previous advisory and the consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 14.9N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 14.8N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 14.8N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 15.0N 125.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 16.4N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 20.0N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 01/0000Z...MERGED WITH TROPICAL STORM HILARY $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2017-07-28 04:50:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 280250 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 11 20(31) 10(41) 5(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) 15N 125W 64 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 30(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Sites : [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] next »