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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-07-26 16:50:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 261450 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Satellite images and microwave data indicate that Irwin's cloud pattern has significantly deteriorated since yesterday. It now consists of a tight circulation center located just to the south of an area of deep, but not too well organized, convection. Consequently, the initial intensity has been decreased to 55 kt based on lower Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies. The environment does not support significant weakening, but is not favorable for much intensification either. The NHC forecast calls for a slight weakening today, and shows no change in intensity for the next 5 days. Although the intensity forecast is a little bit different from the previous one due to the lower current intensity, it does not change the general trend expressed in previous NHC forecasts. Irwin is moving toward the west-southwest or 255 degrees at 6 kt. Currently, the cyclone is embedded within weak steering currents, and Irwin will probably continue on the same slow west-southwest track during the next day or two. After that time, Hurricane Hilary is forecast to pass well north of Irwin, and the steering currents will change to southerlies, and most of the models agree that Irwin should begin to move with a northerly component in the wake of Hilary. This is reflected in the official NHC forecast which in fact is close to the multi-model consensus TVCN, and is not very different from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 15.6N 122.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 15.3N 123.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 14.9N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 14.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 15.0N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2017-07-26 16:50:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 261449 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 15N 125W 34 1 29(30) 29(59) 5(64) 10(74) 2(76) X(76) 15N 125W 50 X 3( 3) 13(16) 3(19) 9(28) 1(29) 1(30) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-26 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 the center of Irwin was located near 15.6, -122.1 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 17
2017-07-26 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 261449 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017 ...IRWIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 122.1W ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 122.1 West. Irwin is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible today, but no significant change in strength is anticipated thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 17
2017-07-26 16:49:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 261448 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 122.1W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 122.1W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 121.8W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.3N 123.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.9N 124.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 122.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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