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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 24

2015-06-16 16:40:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 161439 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 Recent microwave data show that Carlos remains a tiny but well- organized hurricane. A well-defined eye was noted in the microwave data, but no eye is apparent in early-morning visible satellite images. The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt based on satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane should provide a better estimate of the maximum winds in a few hours. The intensity forecast remains a challenge, and with Carlos being such a small cyclone, sudden changes in intensity--up or down--are a distinct possibility. The SHIPS diagnostics don't show environmental parameters being too hostile, and both the SHIPS and LGEM keep Carlos in the 60-65 kt range for the next three days. The global models, on the other hand, weaken the cyclone quickly, with the ECMWF showing dissipation by the end of that same time frame. The official forecast continues to hold on to the assumption that dry air and large-scale subsidence will become an issue in a few days, and Carlos is forecast to weaken gradually to a remnant low by day 4. As implied above, this intensity forecast is of low confidence. The initial motion is 290/4 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected during the next few days, which should keep Carlos just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. The updated NHC track forecast has again been shifted a bit westward, following the trend in the overall guidance envelope and the TVCN multi-model consensus. Since the ECMWF dissipates the cyclone in about three days, the official forecast favors the GFS solution after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 17.5N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 18.0N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 18.6N 105.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 19.1N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 19.5N 106.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 20.1N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 21.2N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm BILL Forecast Discussion Number 2

2015-06-16 10:48:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160848 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 Bill has changed little in organization on satellite images over the past several hours. Most of the deep convection is occurring over the eastern semicircle. Radar data show some banding features over the southern portion of the circulation. Surface observations over the western Gulf of Mexico suggest that the intensity remains near 45 kt. Since there is little time remaining before the center reaches the coast, no significant increase in strength is likely before landfall. Weakening will commence later today after the center moves inland over Texas. There are some differences in the evolution of the cyclone over the U.S. in the global models over the next few days. The official forecast shows the circulation dissipating within 5 days, which is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF predictions. The initial motion estimate, 310/11, has changed little from the previous advisory. Bill should be steered mainly by the flow around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high centered over the southeastern U.S. during the next day or two. Thereafter, mid-level westerlies should cause Bill's remnant low to turn northeastward to east-northeastward. Most of the dynamical track models are in good agreement, and the official forecast is closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Given that Bill has a broad circulation, one should not focus on the exact track, since strong winds and heavy rains are occurring well away from the center. To reiterate, the main hazard from Bill should be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas over the next day or two. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on the flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 29.0N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/0600Z 30.6N 97.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 32.6N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 34.5N 96.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 19/0600Z 36.3N 94.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 20/0600Z 39.0N 88.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 23

2015-06-16 10:45:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160845 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 The satellite presentation is somewhat improved this evening with the clouds near the embedded center of circulation cooling to -80C. Furthermore, an earlier SSMI/S overpass revealed development of a small banding eye feature in the cloud pattern, despite the 8-10 kt of northerly shear. Accordingly, the initial intensity is kept at 65 kt for this advisory. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12-24 hours, then gradual weakening is anticipated through the remaining period as indicated by the SHIPS intensity model, the global models, and the Florida State Superensemble. The aforementioned weakening trend is based on the expectation that the cyclone will be moving into an area of large-scale subsidence and drier air spreading southward from Baja California and northwest Mexico. The increasingly unfavorable environment should result in Carlos becoming a remnant low in 3 days. Carlos has continued to move west-northwestward or 295/5 kt over the past 12 hours. A turn to the north-northwest is expected Wednesday morning as the cyclone enters a growing weakness in the subtropical ridge extending westward from central Mexico. Carlos is forecast to continue on this general motion until dissipation in 5 days. The NHC forecast has again been adjusted a bit to the left of the previous advisory to side with the reliable TVCN model consensus and the Florida State Superensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.4N 103.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.8N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 18.5N 105.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 19.2N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 19.8N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 20.6N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z 21.4N 107.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 22

2015-06-16 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160232 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 Satellite images suggest that Carlos is maintaining its intensity this evening. The center of the compact hurricane is estimated to be embedded on the north side of a persistent area of deep convection. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 65 kt, which is what the earlier aircraft data suggested as well. Carlos remains a very small tropical cyclone. The data measured by the Hurricane Hunters earlier today and a ASCAT pass from several hours ago indicated that the tropical storm force winds extended no more than 40 n mi from the center with hurricane force winds confined to a tiny area around the center. The northerly shear currently affecting Carlos is expected to lessen tomorrow while the hurricane remains over warm water. These environmental factors would typically support strengthening. However, most of the models show Carlos weakening or dissipating during the next few days. This weakening shown in the models is possibly due to the interaction with land and the higher terrain of Mexico and some drier air. It is also possible that the models are having difficultly with Carlos given its small size compared to their resolutions. The official intensity forecast is mainly an update of the previous one, but does show Carlos becoming a remnant low sooner than previously predicted. Carlos is moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected to occur on Tuesday followed by a north- northwestward motion on Wednesday when the storm moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge enhanced by Tropical Storm Bill in the Gulf of Mexico. The models that don't dissipate Carlos have generally shifted to the left, and the official forecast has been adjusted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.2N 103.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.5N 104.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 18.9N 105.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 19.8N 106.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z 21.2N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm BILL Forecast Discussion Number 1

2015-06-16 04:10:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160210 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations indicate that the circulation associated with the low located in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined since earlier today. While the circulation still appears to be somewhat elongated, the center is defined enough to consider the system a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Bill at this time. The aircraft data indicate an area of 40-45 kt winds north and east of the center, and the initial intensity is set to 45 kt for this advisory. Given the relatively broad nature of the system, the large radius of maximum winds, and the somewhat ragged convective pattern, only a little strengthening is expected before the center reaches the coast tomorrow, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. After landfall Bill is expected to weaken to a depression after 24 hours, and the low-level circulation is forecast to dissipate by 48 hours following the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Note that the global models subsequently show the low- to mid-level remnants of Bill moving northward and then northeastward ahead of an upper trough into the southern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley. The initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 320/10 given the recent formation of the center. The primary steering mechanism is a mid-level anticyclone centered over the southeastern United States, which should result in Bill moving northwestward toward the Texas coast in the next 12 hours and then inland over south-central Texas. The track model guidance is in generally good agreement through landfall. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the latest model fields from the UKMET, ECMWF, and GFS models and is a little to the left of the multi-model consensus. It is important not to focus on the exact track of the center, given the large area across which heavy rains and tropical storm conditions are expected to occur. Given this forecast, a tropical storm warning has been issued for much of the middle and upper Texas coast. However, the main hazard associated with Bill and its remnants will be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on the flooding hazard. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 27.1N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 28.3N 95.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 29.7N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 31.5N 98.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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