je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-09-14 04:39:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140239 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 The compact inner-core of Edouard has become a little more organized during the evening. A low- to mid-level eye-like feature has intermittently appeared in microwave imagery, however, a 2206 GMI image suggests that the low-level center remains displaced slightly to the south of the mid-level center. The intensity has been increased to 55 kt, based on the Dvorak classification from TAFB and a timely 2354 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed believable wind vectors of 49-51 kt. Upper-level outflow has expanded to the west, and to a lesser degree, the south, indicative of decreasing vertical wind shear. Intensification is expected due to a more conducive environment, with the only obvious impediment being some marginally dry air, primarily to the south and east of Edouard. The intensity guidance, particularly DSHP, is forecasting a higher peak intensity this cycle. The intensity forecast has been increased slightly for the first 96 hours of the forecast and remains very close to the consensus aid IVCN. By day 5, Edouard will be well embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, and weakening is expected while extratropical transition occurs. Edouard continues to move steadily toward the northwest and the estimated initial motion is 305/12. There has been remarkable run-to-run consistency in the track guidance for the past 4 cycles. Edouard is still expected to move on a general northwestward track for the next couple of days before reaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge and recurving. The NHC forecast has not been changed substantially and remains very close to the multi-model consensus TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 23.4N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 24.5N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 25.9N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 27.2N 54.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 32.2N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 38.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 42.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-09-14 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140235 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 Satellite imagery suggests that the depression is actually somewhat better organized than it was 24 hours ago. Last-light visible images showed a well-defined circulation within an elongated broader-scale cyclonic envelope, obscured by a thick veil of cirrus clouds. A band consisting of intermittent, cold-topped convection also was noted on the south side of circulation. Since there have been no fundamental changes to the cloud pattern since the last advisory, the initial intensity estimate is held at 30 kt. Opposing lower- and upper-level flow is creating a hostile environment of easterly shear over the depression, with global models showing the shear increasing while the depression nears Hurricane Odile. The model guidance shows that the shear will become so extreme that the depression will degenerate into an open trough in about 24 hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The depression is moving faster toward the east-southeast or 120/08. The small cyclone is expected to accelerate eastward and east-northeastward during the next 24 hours while it is drawn into the circulation of Hurricane Odile. The system should turn northeastward after that time before losing its identity altogether. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.1N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.2N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 16.2N 112.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-09-13 22:42:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132042 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 Ragged convection has persisted near the center of the depression since the previous advisory, and a 1748 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed still showed a well-defined low-level circulation and three 28-kt surface wind vectors in the southwestern quadrant. Therefore, an initial intensity of 30 kt is being maintained for this advisory, which is supported by a T2.0/30 kt classification from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is toward the southeast or 120/06 kt. There is no change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The depression is expected to gradually turn toward the east over the next 12-24 hours as the small cyclone comes under the influence of increasing westerly flow on the south side of Hurricane Odile, and be absorbed into the outer circulation of Odile by 72 hours. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and is close to the consensus model TCVE. Northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to steadily increase throughout the forecast period owing to the strong outflow from Hurricane Odile. As a result, the depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low during the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the ICON consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.5N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.4N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 15.7N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0600Z 17.0N 111.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE ODILE $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-09-13 22:40:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 132040 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 Convection associated with Edouard has blossomed this afternoon. The cloud pattern has become more symmetric, and the outflow is fair toward the northwest. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The low shear, in combination with a pool of anomalously warm waters ahead of Edouard, should result in strengthening, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane on Sunday or early on Monday. The intensity forecast is very close to the consensus ICON. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone's motion is being controlled by the subtropical ridge to its north. It appears that this ridge is a little stronger, and that pattern supports keeping Edouard on a west-northwestward to northwestward course for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the subtropical ridge will weaken and move eastward, allowing Edouard to turn north and then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is close to the multi- model consensus TVCA, which has been very consistent in turning the cyclone northward over the central Atlantic for the past several model cycles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 22.5N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 23.7N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 25.0N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 26.4N 53.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 27.6N 55.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 31.0N 57.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 36.0N 54.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 42.0N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-09-13 16:59:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 131459 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 The first-light visible satellite images show that Odile has continued to become better organized. The central dense overcast has become much more symmetric with some hints of an eye, which is consistent with a TRMM microwave pass from around 1200 UTC. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates gives 70 kt as the initial wind speed. Further strengthening seems likely over the next day or so given the very warm waters and low shear. Steady or even rapid intensification appears to be most probable during that time, and the NHC forecast continues the trend of the last forecast to be above almost all of the guidance. Odile could start to weaken on Monday since it is forecast to pass near the cold wake of Norbert, with generally cooler waters expected after that time. The NHC forecast is blended with the previous NHC prediction and the intensity consensus. The TRMM pass gives a more confident initial motion estimate of 310/5. Odile should accelerate northwestward by late today as a mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. However, significant spread remains in the model guidance near and after 24 hours, with a fair number of models close to Baja California Sur. The subtropical ridge strength over the eastern Pacific, along with any potential interaction with Tropical Depression 16-E, is making this forecast rather complicated. With little change to the guidance this cycle, the new NHC forecast track will remain close to the previous one. Given the spread in the guidance, confidence remains below normal in the details of the track forecast, including the potential threat to Baja California. Depending on the 1200 UTC model cycle, additional watches and/or warnings could be needed for portions of the Baja California peninsula later today. Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. This is a similar pattern which occurred early this week with Norbert and the remnants of Dolly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 16.6N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 20.6N 110.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 22.1N 111.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 24.4N 114.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 26.5N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 27.5N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [1077] [1078] [1079] [1080] [1081] [1082] [1083] [1084] [1085] [1086] [1087] [1088] [1089] [1090] [1091] [1092] [1093] [1094] [1095] [1096] next »