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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 23
2014-08-27 16:41:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271441 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 Convective cloud tops associated with Marie continue to warm and recent microwave imagery shows the inner-core convection becoming less organized. The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt, which is a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB and objective ADT CI numbers from UW-CIMSS. Marie will be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. This should result in continued weakening and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within 36 hours. The initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt. A west-northwestward motion should continue today, followed by a turn toward the northwest while the cyclone moves around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. After the system becomes shallow, it is expected to turn westward and then west-southwestward in northeasterly low-level flow. The model guidance has trended toward a somewhat faster motion of Marie during the first few days of the forecast period. The NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly and is close to the model consensus. Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja California peninsula and the southern California coast. These swells are expected to persist for another day or so and are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 22.3N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 23.3N 125.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 24.8N 128.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 26.4N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 29/1200Z 28.0N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 30.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z 30.0N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 29.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-08-27 10:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270834 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 Marie continues to slowly weaken. Although deep convection in the eyewall has changed little during the past few hours, cloud tops have warmed outside of the inner core region. In addition, a dry slot is now evident to the north of the center. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 75 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications. The hurricane is currently over 25 C water and it will be moving over even cooler water during the next few days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more stable air mass should cause the weakening trend to continue. Marie is expected to lose all of its deep convection in 36 to 48 hours when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures around 22 C. Satellite fixes suggest that Marie has moved a little to the left of the previous forecast track. The initial motion estimate is 285/11. A turn to the northwest and then north-northwest is expected during the next few days while the weakening system moves around a strong mid-level high builds off the coast of the northern Baja California. Beyond a few days, the shallow system is expected to slow down and turn westward or southwestward in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward, mainly to account for the initial motion and position. Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja California peninsula and the southern California coast. These swells are expected to persist for another day or so and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 21.7N 122.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 22.5N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 23.8N 127.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 25.5N 129.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 27.0N 130.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/0600Z 29.5N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 31/0600Z 29.8N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 29.2N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-08-27 10:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 270833 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 The cloud pattern has changed from 12 hours ago when there was deep and symmetric convection near the center. Currently, the satellite presentation resembles a subtropical cyclone with weak convection which is not concentrated near the center. However, an Air Force plane recently penetrated Cristobal and found a minimum pressure of 983 mb and a partial eyewall. The strong winds of 75 to 80 kt measured by the plane at flight level were not observed at the surface during this time. Given such uncertainty, the initial intensity has been kept at 70 kt at this time. The hurricane has a small window of opportunity for strengthening before it moves to higher latitudes and over cooler waters in a couple of days. The NHC wind speed forecast is close to the latest intensity model consensus and similar to the previous official one. After that time, Cristobal is forecast to become a strong post-tropical storm with hurricane-force winds over the north Atlantic later this week. Aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Cristobal slowed down earlier this morning, but as anticipated, it has resumed a northward motion or 010 degrees at 10 knots. The steering pattern has not changed and Cristobal should begin to move toward the northeast in about 24 hours with an increase in forward speed as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus and similar to the GFS ensemble mean AEMI, which has been performing quite well with this storm so far. The forecast beyond 72 hours follows the input from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 30.9N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 32.4N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 34.7N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 37.5N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 40.5N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 48.0N 43.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0600Z 53.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-08-27 04:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 270234 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Cristobal earlier this evening, and found that the hurricane had strengthened a bit. Based on SFMR-observed surface winds and dropsonde data from the aircraft, the intensity was increased to 70 kt. Since the time of the aircraft mission, the convective cloud tops have warmed somewhat -- but this is likely a diurnal fluctuation. The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Cristobal will remain modest through about 36 hours, but increase substantially thereafter. Therefore the hurricane has a window of opportunity for strengthening that should last through tomorrow night. The official wind speed forecast is close to the latest intensity model consensus. Later in the forecast period, as Cristobal nears and undergoes extratropical transition, strong baroclinic forcing should result in a powerful post-tropical storm with hurricane-force winds over the north Atlantic later this week. Aircraft fixes indicate a northward motion of about 360/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory package. Over the next day or two, Cristobal should move through a weakness between 2 subtropical anticyclones. Thereafter, the cyclone should turn northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric shortwave trough moving off of the northeastern United States, and accelerate in the mid-latitude westerlies. The latest track model guidance has shifted a bit to the left, and the official forecast remains near the right side of the guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 30.4N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 32.0N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 34.3N 69.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 36.6N 66.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 39.5N 60.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 47.5N 45.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0000Z 54.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z 62.0N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 56
2014-08-26 22:50:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 262050 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 After a brief convection hiatus, a small band of thunderstorms has redeveloped in the southwestern quadrant. As a result, tropical depression status and a 25-kt intensity are being maintained for this advisory. Although the easterly shear induced by the large upper-level outflow pattern of Hurricane Marie located well to the northeast of Karina should act to suppress the development of any persistent deep convection after 12 hours, the cyclone could still produce intermittent convective bursts until the system opens up into a trough by Thursday. The initial motion estimate is south-southeastward or 150/04 kt based on a combination of conventional and microwave satellite fixes. The small circulation of Karina is expected to be advected southeastward and eastward within the southern semicircle of Hurricane Marie over the next 24-36 hours as the the latter cyclone continues to lift out to the northwest. The only change to the previous advisory track has been the addition of points at 24 and 36 hours due to some of the models still depicting Karina as a small but closed remnant low at those times periods. Karina is now the seventh-longest-lasting tropical cyclone in the eastern North Pacific basin during the satellite era. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 16.2N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 15.8N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 16.0N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0600Z 16.7N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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