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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-08-28 10:32:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 280832 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014 Cristobal's satellite presentation is more typical of a tropical cyclone tonight than yesterday at this time. There is a symmetric area of very deep convection concentrated near the center, and Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of 65 kt. There is a small opportunity for intensification as indicated by some models, but it is becoming more likely that it will be enhanced by baroclinic processes as the cyclone interacts with a frontal zone. Cristobal will move over 17-degree Celsius waters and lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours. It should then become an intense extratropical cyclone with winds of hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days. The hurricane is already embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 25 knots and accelerating. There is no reason to change the track forecast from the previous one, and the official forecast track continues to be in good agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA and the GFS ensemble mean. The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 35.6N 67.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 37.8N 63.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 41.5N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 46.0N 47.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/0600Z 50.0N 40.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0600Z 59.5N 28.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0600Z 63.0N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 26
2014-08-28 10:31:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280831 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 Deep convection near Marie has significantly decreased in the past few hours, with the low-level center becoming partially exposed on the north side of the old central dense overcast. The initial wind speed is reduced to 45 kt, on the higher side of the latest satellite classifications. Since Marie is now over sub-23C waters, it is no longer expected to produce organized deep convection and should become post-tropical in about 12 hours. The large circulation will take some time to spin down even without convection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows only a gradual decay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus. Marie is moving to the northwest or 305/14 kt. This general motion is expected for the next day or so while the cyclone remains under the influence of a mid-level high near the coast of southern California. Marie or its remnants are forecast to slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of the forecast period when it is steered by the lower-level flow. Model guidance has nudged a bit to the west in the first 48 hours, so the NHC track forecast is adjusted in that direction. Beyond day 3, the updated NHC track prediction, similar to the previous forecast, is a little bit farther north. Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 24.4N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 25.6N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 29/0600Z 27.4N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1800Z 28.9N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 30.0N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 30.7N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z 30.5N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-08-28 04:34:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280234 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 The convective pattern has not changed since the last advisory. However, the center of Marie is now over SSTs less than 24C, and the circulation continues to gradually spin down. ASCAT data still showed a sizable area of 50-kt winds several hours ago, so the initial intensity is only lowered to 50 kt, which is on the higher side of the satellite intensity estimates. Water temperatures between 22-23C and a stable environment will cause the cyclone to continue weakening, and Marie could become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours. A strengthening mid-level high near the coast of California and the Baja California peninsula has caused Marie to accelerate a bit, with an initial motion of 300/14 kt. Marie is forecast to turn northwestward around this high during the next 48 hours, but then slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of the forecast period when it is steered by lower-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is a little bit farther north than the previous one beyond day 3 during the remnant low phase, but otherwise there are no significant changes. Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 23.8N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 25.0N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 29/1200Z 28.4N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 29.6N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z 30.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 30.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z 30.0N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-08-28 04:32:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 280232 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014 Cristobal has a fairly circular area of deep convection over the estimated low-level center, with cloud tops occasionally to -70 deg C. The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The symmetric appearance of the cloud pattern suggests that vertical shear has not yet become very strong, but the latest SHIPS guidance indicates a significant increase in shear in 18-24 hours. The hurricane could strengthen some over the next day or two as a tropical cyclone, or due to baroclinic processes. The official intensity forecast is close to the intensity model consensus through 36 hours, and a little above it thereafter. Extratropical transition is likely to have occurred by 48 hours since the global models depict the system as fully embedded within a frontal zone by that time. Post-tropical Cristobal is likely to be an intense extratropical cyclone with winds to hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days. The hurricane is beginning to accelerate northeastward, and the motion estimate is 050/17. The track forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. Cristobal is currently rounding the northwestern periphery of a subtropical anticyclone over the west-central Atlantic. A mid-latitude shortwave trough to the northwest of the hurricane should cause the hurricane, or its post-tropical counterpart, to accelerate further and move into the higher-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is in good agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA. The track, intensity and wind structure forecasts have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 34.1N 69.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 36.1N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 39.3N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 43.4N 51.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 47.5N 44.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0000Z 56.0N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0000Z 62.5N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-08-27 16:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 271441 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 Some deep convection has redeveloped near the center of Cristobal during the past few hours, mainly in the western semicircle. Satellite imagery shows dry air wrapping south and east of the center interspersed with a couple of convective bands. The initial intensity remains 70 kt, and another aircraft will be investigating the cyclone this afternoon. There is still some potential for Cristobal to strengthen as a tropical cyclone during the next day or so before it begins extratropical transition, which should be complete shortly after 48 hours. Cristobal is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone by Friday night or Saturday, and then slowly weaken before being absorbed by another cyclone at the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the IVCN intensity consensus while Cristobal remains a tropical cyclone. Cristobal has wobbled a little to the left this morning, with an initial motion estimate of 355/10. All of the guidance is unanimous in turning Cristobal north-northeastward and then northeastward during the next 24 hours and accelerating the cyclone into the mid-latitude westerlies. A continued northeasterly motion is expected through the remainder of the cyclone's life cycle. The track model guidance is tightly clustered, but the NHC forecast has shifted to the left of the previous one by about a half a degree due to the initial position and motion being to the left of the previous track. The new NHC track is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models through 72 hours, and a little south of that consensus at 96 hours. The extratropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 31.8N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 34.0N 70.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 36.5N 66.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 39.6N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 43.5N 52.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 50.0N 40.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1200Z 56.0N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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