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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 52

2014-08-25 22:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 252036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 The upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie is strongly shearing Karina, though a persistent small area of deep convection continues in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone. A direct hit from the ASCAT-B scatterometer at 1742Z indicates peak winds of about 30 kt, which is the initial intensity of Karina. Despite the system heading toward warmer waters, hostile vertical shear and dry air should cause Karina to become a remnant low in about 12 hours. Karina's remnant low should become absorbed within the circulation of the much larger Marie in about 36 hours. The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models and is the same as that from the previous advisory. The visible imagery and the ASCAT-B pass indicate that Karina is moving toward the east at 5 kt. This motion is somewhat unexpected as all of the guidance suggested an east-southeast to southeast heading today. The cyclone will be advected around the large circulation of Marie until Karina is absorbed. The track forecast, based upon a blend of the TVCE multi-model consensus and the previous advisory, is north of the previous official prediction because of the more poleward initial position than expected earlier. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 17.2N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z 16.3N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 16

2014-08-25 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252034 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 Visible and microwave satellite images indicate that Marie still has concentric eyewalls, which are surrounded by another larger and almost closed ring of deep convection. Convective cloud tops have continued to gradually warm and become more asymmetric during the past few hours. As a result, Dvorak estimates have dropped, and the initial intensity is lowered to 115 kt based on a consensus of CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT. A steady decrease in the winds is forecast to continue in the short term, but the weakening rate should quicken after Marie moves over sub-26C waters in about 24 hours. As a result, the hurricane is now expected to weaken to a tropical storm in about 48 hours and become post-tropical by 96 hours. Marie will be over SSTs around 22 deg C in about 72 hours, so it is possible that it could become post-tropical sooner than indicated in the official forecast. The weakening trend shown in the current NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is in line with the SHIPS and LGEM models through 48 hours. Forecast intensities at the end of the period are based more on the global models, which should have a better handle on the system during its post-tropical phase. The initial motion remains 305/11 kt. Mid-level ridging will continue to steer Marie northwestward or west-northwestward through day 4. Once it becomes a remnant low on day 5, Marie is likely to turn northward and slow down. The track guidance has not changed on this forecast cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one. Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 18.4N 115.8W 115 KT 135 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 19.4N 117.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 20.6N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 21.7N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 22.7N 124.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 25.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 29.0N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/1800Z 31.0N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 51

2014-08-25 16:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 251435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 The upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie is strongly shearing Karina, as only a small puff of deep convection remains in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone. Dvorak current intensity numbers continue to drop, and a blend of the values from the ADT, SAB, and TAFB indicate that Karina has weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression. Despite the system heading toward warmer waters, hostile vertical shear should cause Karina to become a remnant low in about 12 hours. Thereafter, Karina's remnant low should become absorbed within the circulation of the much larger Marie in about two days. The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the HWRF, LGEM, and SHIPS models and is the same as that from the previous advisory. With Karina's very limited deep convection, finding the center this morning is quite easy in the shortwave infrared imagery. Karina is moving toward the east-southeast at 8 kt. The cyclone will be advected around the large circulation of Marie until absorption of Karina occurs. The track forecast - based upon a blend of the TVCE multi-model consensus and the previous advisory - is just south of the previous official prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.1N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.8N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 15.7N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 15

2014-08-25 16:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251434 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 The area of the coldest cloud tops surrounding Marie's eye has been gradually shrinking in size while the eye has started to cool. However, Marie is still a powerful hurricane, and a blend of CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT support maintaining an intensity of 125 kt for this advisory. A 1207 UTC SSMI/S pass indicated that Marie still has a concentric eyewall structure, so an eyewall replacement has not yet occurred. Upper-level outflow has become a little restricted on the northwest side of the hurricane, but vertical shear is expected to remain light for much of the forecast period. Internal dynamics, especially the continued potential of an eyewall replacement, will likely influence Marie's intensity during the next 24 hours. After that time, quick weakening is expected since Marie will be moving over sub-26C waters. The intensity models are in good agreement in Marie's rate of weakening during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast is therefore very close to the intensity consensus. Marie has turned northwestward with an initial motion of 305/11 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north and northeast of the hurricane is expected to steer Marie on a northwestward or west-northwestward heading through day 4. The depiction of a developing mid-level high along the California/northwest Mexico coast in 3 days has been a little stronger in recent model runs, and as a result, the track guidance for Marie has shifted westward. The updated NHC track forecast is close to a clustering of the GFS, ECMWF, and TVCE beyond 48 hours. Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.9N 114.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W 115 KT 135 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 20.1N 118.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 21.2N 120.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 22.2N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 24.5N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 28.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/1200Z 30.5N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 14

2014-08-25 10:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250833 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 Marie has an impressive concentric eyewall structure in recent microwave images. The inner eyewall surrounds the 15 n mi diameter circular eye, and the outer one extends about 40 to 50 n mi from the center. In addition, a large curved band exists beyond the inner core and wraps across the southern portion of the circulation. The initial wind speed is set at 125 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. A pair of ASCAT passes around 0500 UTC confirmed the large wind field of Marie, with tropical storm force winds extending over 250 n mi away from the center. Intensity fluctuations are likely today due to the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle. As mentioned in previous discussions, these internal dynamics are not predictable in terms of timing or how many occur. Regardless, Marie is expected to be a major hurricane for at least another 24 hours while it remains in an air mass of low shear and high moisture, and over 28-29 degrees Celsius water. After that time, however, Marie will be moving over much colder water and into a more stable atmosphere. These conditions should promote a steady or even rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is mainly an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. After the eye of the hurricane was wobbling around for much of the day yesterday, the cyclone seems to be on a smoother northwestward track now. The initial motion estimate is 300/10. A continued northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next 3 to 4 days while Marie remains steered by ridging to the north of the cyclone. A turn to the north-northwest is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the weakening system begins to move around the western periphery of the ridge. No significant changes were made to the previous advisory, and the current track forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus, TVCE. Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 17.3N 113.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.3N 115.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 19.6N 117.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 20.9N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 22.0N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 24.7N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 27.8N 130.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/0600Z 30.2N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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