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Tropical Storm PRISCILLA Forecast Discussion Number 6

2013-10-15 16:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AROUND THE TIME OF THE LAST ADVISORY. DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 30-35 KT AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING PRISCILLA AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM. DEEP-LAYER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS DECREASING TO BELOW 10 KT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PRISCILLA CONTINUES TO INGEST MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTHWEST. SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...PRISCILLA SHOULD EITHER MAINTAIN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THAT TIME. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD THEN CAUSE PRISCILLA TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. PRISCILLA APPEARS TO BE TURNING AND NOW HAS AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 330/6 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.4N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.9N 117.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 18.6N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 19.2N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 19.7N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z 19.6N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Depression OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 10

2013-10-15 10:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150833 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION. IN FACT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS STILL LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...LITTLE MOTION OR PERHAPS A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 25.5N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 26.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z 26.5N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 
 

Tropical Storm PRISCILLA Forecast Discussion Number 4

2013-10-15 04:38:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150238 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 800 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PRISCILLA HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE MASS HAS SHRUNK AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SOME SINCE EARLIER TODAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS DUE NORTH OR 360/07. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF PRISCILLA SOON...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE TRACK SHOULD BEND TOWARD THE WEST ONCE THE SYSTEM DECOUPLES AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN ABOUT 12 HOURS WHILE PRISCILLA MOVES OVER WARM BUT SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD...PRISCILLA IS ALREADY INGESTING MORE AND MORE OF A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD INTO ITS CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH. THIS NEGATIVE FACTOR WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION. WEAKENING LIKELY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS DUE TO A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER WATERS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN SOONER...BY 96 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 16.2N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 16.9N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 17.6N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 18.4N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 19.2N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 9

2013-10-15 04:35:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150235 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 RECENT GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OCTAVE IS DECOUPLING FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI-NUMBERS FROM SAB. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 12 HOURS...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...BUT COULD OCCUR SOONER. SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS A LITTLE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 025/10. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES LAND...WITH LITTLE OR NO MOTION EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME AS THE CIRCULATION WEAKENS OVER THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS AGAIN TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM THROUGH LANDFALL. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 25.1N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 25.9N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0000Z 26.1N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 26.3N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 8

2013-10-14 22:46:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142046 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 015/08 KT. OCTAVE HAS MADE THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS OCTAVE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT ONCE AGAIN...AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW A CONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. TWO PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES ONLY CAUGHT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SHOWED 40-KT WIND SPEEDS IN THAT PART OF THE CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KT. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SUB-24C SSTS AND SHARPLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT BY 12 HOURS. SOME OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE APPEARS TO HAVE HELP MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THAT FAVORABLE CONNECTION SHOULD CEASE BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT A RAPID DEMISE OF THE CYCLONE...AND OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. IF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT OBSERVED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...STRONGER WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THEREFORE...INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 24.1N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 25.1N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 25.8N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 26.2N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 26.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

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