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Tropical Storm PRISCILLA Forecast Discussion Number 2

2013-10-14 16:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141443 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 30-35 KT...THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA SHOWED WINDS BETWEEN 35-40 KT...AND THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE IS T2.9/43 KT. THE LATTER TWO ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DUE TO 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND PRISCILLA SHOULD REMAIN OVER WATER OF AT LEAST 26C THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD BE LIMITED BY INGESTION OF DRIER AIR WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTHWARD. BY DAY 3...INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COLDER WATER...AND MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALL INDUCE QUICK WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND IN FACT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BRING PRISCILLA NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. PRISCILLA HAS TURNED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO...AND ITS INITIAL MOTION IS 010/9 KT. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE ALONG 120W FILLS IN AND FORCES PRISCILLA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE OCCURRED ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WHICH REQUIRED A FAIRLY SIZEABLE WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AS WELL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST STILL LIES EAST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE...SO AN ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 15.2N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 16.2N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 18.2N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.0N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z 20.5N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 7

2013-10-14 16:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141443 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11 KT. OCTAVE IS ON OR JUST NORTH OF THE LATITUDE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS EAST. AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND A BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. OCTAVE IS MOVING OVER A NARROW TONGUE OF COLD WATER LESS THAN 24C... AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS A RESULT. AVERAGE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 45-50 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT REMAINS OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE PASSING CLOSE ENOUGH TO A TIGHT SST GRADIENT AND WARMER WATER JUST TO ITS EAST THAT COULD KEEP AN INFLUX OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...SHIP PINX- WESTERDAM THAT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA THIS MORNING HAS RECENTLY REPORTED 31-KT WINDS...INDICATING THAT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW OCCURRING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...STRENGTH...AND SIZE OF THE OUTER WINDFIELD OF OCTAVE AT LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. EVEN IF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT OBSERVED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THEREFORE...INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 22.6N 113.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 24.2N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 25.4N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 26.0N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 26.0N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 6

2013-10-14 10:53:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140853 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 OCTAVE APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS MORE OF A SHEARED APPEARANCE THAT IT DID EARLIER...IT STILL IS PRODUCING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 50 KT...AND THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 65 KT. BASED ON ALL OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE REMAINS 55 KT. OCTAVE HAS NOW CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THESE EXPECTED HOSTILE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE OCTAVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. A SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY WHILE OCTAVE ROUNDS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS RUN. THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT WARRANT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OCTAVE IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 21.6N 113.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 23.2N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 24.8N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 25.9N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 26.5N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Leadership series aims to foster discussion

2013-10-14 03:12:21| Oil & Gas - Topix.net

For Robert O. Agbede, CEO of Chester Engineers in Moon, having a diverse workforce is a crucial part of running his company.

Tags: series discussion leadership foster

 

Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 4

2013-10-13 22:46:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 132046 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...OUTER BAND CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WHILE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK. THE INNER CORE CONVECTION NOW CONSISTS OF A SMALL RING OF CONVECTION ABOUT 100 NMI IN DIAMETER WITH A 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE FEATURE EMBEDDED NEARLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE RING. HOWEVER...SEVERAL PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE IS TILTED MORE THAN 20 NMI TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE JUMPED SHARPLY TO T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT A 1639Z ASCAT-B OVERPASS ONLY REVEALED 35-40 KT WINDS WITHIN 20 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND A 1725Z ASCAT-A OVERPASS ONLY INDICATED 45 KT IN THE EASTERN EYEWALL. THIS SUGGESTS THAT OCTAVE MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURES INDICATE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY BLENDS THESE ESTIMATES AND IS GENEROUSLY SET TO 55 KT. UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE THAT OCTAVE IS EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT IS UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE 6 KT OF 850-200 MB SHEAR... WHICH EXPLAINS THE NORTHWARD TILT OF THE EYE FEATURE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE TILTED EYE FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE RATHER COMPACT SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...MEANS THE OCTAVE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN ONCE IT MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STEADILY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DECOUPLE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...RESULTING IN OCTAVE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/11 KT. OCTAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD BY MONDAY AND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...A VERTICALLY SHALLOW AND WEAK OCTAVE COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND COMPLETELY DECOUPLES. THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME...HOWEVER...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TCVE AND FSSE MODELS. DESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF OCTAVE...THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...PLUS AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...DOES NOT WARRANT ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.2N 112.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 20.6N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 23.7N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 24.6N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 25.1N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z 26.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

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