je.st
news
Tag: discussion
09.30.13 Public Meeting - Agenda, Transportation Safety Materials, Discussion Notes, Feedback
2013-10-18 00:39:15| PortlandOnline
The first E Burnside St (14th - 32nd) Transportation Safety Public Meeting was held on Sept 30, 2013. This document includes the materials presented at the meeting and a summary of group discussion, feedback, and evaluation. PDF Document, 303kbCategory: W/E Burnside Street
Tags: public
feedback
discussion
notes
Post-Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-10-17 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170233 TCDEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 800 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM PRISCILLA FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. AS A RESULT...PRISCILLA NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER. THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA HAS LOST SOME DEFINITION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/06. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SOON TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 18.7N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 17/1200Z 18.8N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 18.7N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 18.4N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 18.0N 125.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
cyclone
Tropical Depression PRISCILLA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-10-16 16:40:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161440 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 800 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO BANDING FEATURES IS OCCURRING OVER AND TO THE WEST OF PRISCILLA. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED. A 0534Z ASCAT PASS WAS A BULLSEYE PROVIDING BOTH AN ACCURATE POSITION OF PRISCILLA AND ALSO SHOWING MULTIPLE 25-30 KT WIND VECTORS. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS REMAINS 30 KT. THE CONVECTIVE STRUGGLES OF PRISCILLA ARE MAINLY DUE TO IT TRAVERSING LUKEWARM 26-27C WATER AND BEING EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY DRY AIR...AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN QUITE LOW. ALONG ITS PROJECTED PATH...HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MUCH STRONGER OUT OF THE WEST STARTING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL. THUS GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SCENARIO IS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. PRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 7 KT...PRIMARILY THROUGH THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. AS THE CYCLONE COMPLETELY LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT WILL BE CARRIED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 18.1N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 18.6N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 18.5N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 18.4N 124.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 18.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression PRISCILLA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-10-16 10:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160831 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 200 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12H...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 30 KT...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 25 KT FROM SAB. PASSIVE MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT PRISCILLA IS STILL MOVING AT 290/06 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24H OR SO DUE TO A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PRISCILLA. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND BECOMES A VERTICALLY SHALLOW REMNANT LOW...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST BY 36H...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT 48H AND BEYOND AS THE WEAKENED SYSTEM GETS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 12-18H WHILE PRISCILLA REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. HOWEVER...BY 24H AND BEYOND...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...WHILE ALSO MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS. THIS COMBINATION OF UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE PRISCILLA TO WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36H AND DISSIPATE AFTER 72H...IF NOT SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.9N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 18.3N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 18.6N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 18.7N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 18.5N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 17.7N 125.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-10-15 16:36:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151436 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR ABOUT 5 HOURS...AND TWO ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES THAT CAME IN AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE STILL CONTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND ALSO TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION... AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS ARE BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/04 KT. OCTAVE HAS MADE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT OCTAVE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLING FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DURING THAT TIME DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF AT LEAST 35 KT. THE RESULT IS THAT OCTAVE SHOULD QUICKLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...AND MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 25.4N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 26.0N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1200Z 26.7N 109.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Sites : [1185] [1186] [1187] [1188] [1189] [1190] [1191] [1192] [1193] [1194] [1195] [1196] [1197] [1198] [1199] [1200] [1201] [1202] [1203] [1204] next »