je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-10-13 16:34:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 131433 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR AND AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF OCTAVE. IN ADDITION...THE PRESSURE AT SOCORRO ISLAND...LOCATED ABOUT 80 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL STORM...FELL TO AS LOW AS 1001.4 MB AROUND 11Z...WHICH INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE CYCLONE IS BELOW 1000 MB. BASED ON PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIPS AND A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/12 KT. THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR THE CENTER OF OCTAVE TO BE BETTER DETERMINED...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A MORE WESTWARD LOCATION. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK OR REASONING. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 22N FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. AS OCTAVE WEAKENS...THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW AND SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER WHEN IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TCVE AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL FSSE. ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE RECENT INGESTION OF COOLER AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...OCTAVE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING BY MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD STRIP AWAY ANY REMAINING CONVECTION...RESULTING IN OCTAVE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL ICON. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 18.3N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 19.9N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 21.7N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 23.3N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 24.3N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 25.1N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z 26.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-10-13 10:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130832 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 0500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE...AND ON THAT BASIS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...MAKING THE CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE. THIS INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS AND INTO AN ATMOSPHERE OF QUITE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN... AND OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS. THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OCTAVE...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER WHEN IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REQUIRE ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA IF THE CYCLONE GETS STRONGER THAN PREDICTED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 17.1N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 18.6N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 20.5N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 23.2N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 24.5N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z 25.5N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-10-13 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130233 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013 THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THUS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/10. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 21N 124W...SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND START TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SHEAR APART AFTER 36-48 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING VERY SLOWLY NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT... THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW AFTER 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BEFORE REACHING COLDER WATER. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY DO NOT REQUIRE ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE CYCLONE GETS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.1N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 17.4N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 21.1N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 22.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 25.5N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0000Z 26.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Post-Tropical Cyclone NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2013-10-10 16:34:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 101434 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013 NARDA HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC AND LESS PERSISTENT. ALSO...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW COULD STILL OCCASIONALLY GENERATE A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE AIR...IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO WHILE IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 16.3N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 11/0000Z 16.2N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1200Z 15.5N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
cyclone
Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-10-10 10:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013 A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NARDA CONTINUES TO CLING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN NARDA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS. THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 240/02...AND A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION AS NARDA IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 16.4N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 16.1N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/0600Z 15.6N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z 15.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 14.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Sites : [1188] [1189] [1190] [1191] [1192] [1193] [1194] [1195] [1196] [1197] [1198] [1199] [1200] [1201] [1202] [1203] [1204] [1205] [1206] [1207] next »