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Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 13

2013-10-09 22:52:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 092052 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 NARDA CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND IS THUS CLINGING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS FOR NOW. ALSO...A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT NARDA HAS NOT WEAKENED QUITE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AND THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A STABLE AIR MASS AND THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM... WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW ARE FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT MY BEST GUESS IS THAT IT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. NARDA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...ARE LIKELY TO SOON BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT GIVEN BY THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 16.9N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1800Z 16.1N 129.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0600Z 15.7N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 15.1N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 12

2013-10-09 16:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091443 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 A LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN NARDA AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY CYCLE. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 25 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHICH...ALONG WITH SOME SHEAR...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE IN 2-3 DAYS. NARDA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.9N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 16.7N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1200Z 16.3N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0000Z 15.8N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1200Z 15.3N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 11

2013-10-09 10:36:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090836 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 A BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NARDA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED...THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A BIT LONGER. RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE AROUND 30 KT. NARDA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...AND NARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES AND THE ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT NARDA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED WESTWARD. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.8N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.8N 128.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/0600Z 16.3N 129.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1800Z 15.9N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0600Z 15.4N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 14.8N 133.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 10

2013-10-09 04:36:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090236 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 NARDA IS BARELY HANGING ON TO ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LAST CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS AGO...AND LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES THE CONVECTION-FREE CIRCULATION MOVING INTO A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. ALTHOUGH MOVING OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...NARDA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WHILE IT SIMULTANEOUSLY MOVES INTO AN EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. IF NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS SOON...NARDA IS LIKELY TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR LESS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/10. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF NARDA HAS BECOME SHALLOW...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.9N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 17.1N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/0000Z 16.9N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1200Z 16.7N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0000Z 16.4N 131.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z 15.6N 132.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 8

2013-10-08 16:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081431 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO DECREASED THIS MORNING...AND OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONSEQUENTLY FALLEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT... WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE UNEXPECTED WEAKENING OF NARDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR...AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN... AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NARDA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 15.6N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.1N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 16.3N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 16.4N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 16.4N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 16.3N 131.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 16.0N 133.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 15.5N 135.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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