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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-07-27 22:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 797 WTPZ43 KNHC 272032 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Gilma is feeling the effects of northwesterly shear. During the past several hours, the center of the system has been exposed at times with much of the convective activity being displaced to the southeast of the center. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on a very recent ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak estimates. This makes Gilma a tropical depression. Although Gilma is expected to be over relatively warm SSTs during the next couple of days, the northwesterly shear is forecast to become even more hostile. Therefore, continued weakening is anticipated, and Gilma is now forecast to become a remnant low by 48 hours when the shear is expected to be in excess of 30 kt. The remnant low is predicted to open into a trough by day 4 as shown by many of the global models. The depression is moving westward at 15 kt steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. A west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next few days as the weak and increasingly shallow system is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is slightly south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 14.7N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 14.8N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 15.3N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 15.8N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Avila
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Tropical Storm Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-07-27 16:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 582 WTPZ43 KNHC 271432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Northwesterly shear has disrupted the already poorly organized cloud pattern associated with Gilma. The center is now exposed and located on the northwestern edge of the convection, and T-numbers are only 2.0 on the Dvorak scale. Earlier ASCAT data supported tropical storm strength, however, given that no new ASCAT information is available, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt in this advisory. Gilma could maintain its current strength until stronger westerly shear becomes established over the cyclone. Shear and cooler waters will induce weakening, and Gilma is expected to become a remnant low in 3 days or earlier. Dissipation is expected therafter. The official forecast follows the intensity consensus trend. Gilma is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. The cyclone is on the southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. This steering flow pattern is forecast to persist, so no change in track is anticipated. The NHC forecast is located between the HFIP HCCA model and the simple track consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 14.9N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 15.0N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 15.2N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 16.0N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 16.7N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 17.5N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Remnants of Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-07-27 16:31:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 557 WTPZ44 KNHC 271431 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Nine-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092018 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Satellite images indicate that the circulation of the depression is no longer closed and instead now resembles an northeast-southwest oriented trough. This system is also well embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, an indication that it is not a discrete cyclone. Therefore, this system does not qualify as a tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center. The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt, in general agreement with the Dvorak estimates. The remnants of the cyclone are moving westward at 11 kt, and the trough is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin later today. Future information on this system can be found in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, which can be found on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 10.6N 138.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-07-27 10:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 658 WTPZ44 KNHC 270832 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092018 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 The depression is not well organized at this time, with the center likely located between two unimpressive areas of convection. Microwave data also suggest that the circulation is elongated northeast-to-southwest, which is another sign that the cyclone is struggling. Dvorak classifications haven't changed, so the initial wind speed remains 30 kt. Little change in strength is forecast due to moderate northwesterly shear, with weakening likely in a couple of days due to persistent moderate or strong shear. The new intensity forecast is lower than the previous prediction beyond 36 hours, and the cyclone is now forecast to become post tropical by 96 hours. Given the shear and disorganized nature of the depression, it remains possible that this forecast is conservative, and that dissipation will occur sooner than currently forecast. Satellite and microwave data indicate the depression has slowed down, now moving westward at about 10 kt. This general track is forecast for the next several days, with the system gaining some latitude in the Central Pacific basin due to the orientation of the subtropical ridge. The UKMET and ECMWF models are farther north than the rest of the guidance, possibly due to slight binary interaction with Tropical Storm Gilma. Overall, the new forecast is not too different than the previous one, although it has been adjusted to the northeast at long range to account for the models mentioned above. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 10.7N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 10.6N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 10.5N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 10.7N 143.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 11.0N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 11.9N 150.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 13.0N 155.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-07-27 10:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 926 WTPZ43 KNHC 270831 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 The cloud pattern associated with the cyclone has lost organization during the past several hours, with the low-level center now located at the northern edge of a smaller area of convection. Despite the ragged appearance in satellite imagery, recent ASCAT-A data showed an area of 35 kt winds to the northeast of the center. Based on this, the cyclone has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gilma. The initial motion is 285/14. Gilma should be steered westward to west-northwestward along the southwestern flank of a large mid-level ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States. As the cyclone decays to a shallow remnant low late in the period, a more westward motion is expected. The new track forecast is similar to, but a little faster than the previous forecast, and it is a blend of the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus aids. Gilma is located just to the east of an upper-level trough, which the large-scale models forecast to move or re-form westward just ahead of the storm for the next couple of days. This evolution is expected to keep the cyclone in an area of moderate vertical wind shear, but with some upper-level divergence to maintain convection. Based on this, the intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening in agreement with the overall trend of the intensity guidance. After 36-48 h, Gilma is likely to move into strong and dry northwesterly upper-level flow west of the upper-level trough axis, which should lead to weakening and eventual dissipation. The new intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 120 h in agreement with the dynamical models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 14.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 14.6N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 15.0N 130.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 15.5N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 16.1N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 17.5N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 17.5N 143.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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