Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 10

2016-08-04 22:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042032 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 Earl has continued to spin down as it moves farther inland over Guatemala. The coverage of cold convective tops has decreased and is limited to an area southeast of the center and a rain band about 140 n mi northeast of the center. Assuming a steady weakening, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. Earl is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression tonight and then could become a remnant low at any time in the next couple of days if the deep convection dissipates. The low-level circulation of Earl or its remnants should dissipate by 72 hours over the high terrain of central Mexico. The initial motion estimate is now a bit north of due west, 280/09. The weakening tropical cyclone should continue moving westward to west-northwestward for the next couple of days to the south of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico and southern United States. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and shows the center moving near the coast of the extreme southern Bay of Campeche in about 24 hours before moving back inland. This track is close to the latest multi-model consensus. Earl is expected to produce very heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. In addition, global models continue to show a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre over southern Mexico during the next few days. This weather pattern will likely lead to torrential rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.6N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 05/0600Z 17.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1800Z 18.3N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 06/0600Z 18.6N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 06/1800Z 19.0N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 9

2016-08-04 16:36:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041436 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 Earl is already well inland over northern Guatemala, and although visible satellite images still show a vigorous circulation, the convection is rapidly decreasing. There are no wind observations near the center, but the best estimate of the initial intensity is 45 kt. Since most of the circulation of Earl is forecast to move over the high terrain of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico, rapid weakening is anticipated. Earl is expected to degenerate into a tropical depression tonight and into a remnant low in a day or so. Earl has been moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone is trapped south of a ridge, and given that the steering flow is not expected to change, a continued westward track is anticipated for the next day or two. This forecast motion over land reduces the chances of reintensification in the extreme southern portion of the Bay of Campeche. Despite the current weakening, Earl is capable of producing very heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. In addition, global models continue to show a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre over southern Mexico during the next few days. This weather pattern will likely lead to torrential rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.2N 89.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.5N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1200Z 18.0N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 06/0000Z 18.5N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 07/1200Z 19.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 8

2016-08-04 16:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041435 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 800 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2016 After Ivette produced very little convection near its low-level center last evening, a large burst of thunderstorms developed around 0700 UTC, and the cirrus canopy has continued to expand since then. However, there is no data to support that this convection has led to any intensification yet, and the maximum winds remain 40 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 3.0/45 kt and 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Vertical shear appears to have decreased below 10 kt, which may be fostering the recent increase in convection. With sea surface temperatures remaining between 27-28C and shear expected to be low during the next three days or so, intensification is still anticipated. But because Ivette has failed to strengthen during the past 24 hours, the peak winds shown by the intensity models continue to decrease, and none of the guidance makes the cyclone a hurricane. For now, the NHC official forecast continues to show Ivette reaching hurricane intensity in 2-3 days, but this forecast may need to be adjusted if Ivette does not start strengthening soon. A significant increase in shear and marginal SSTs should lead to fairly quick weakening on days 4 and 5. Ivette is moving westward, or 280/13 kt. A strong subtropical high located north of the cyclone is expected to steer Ivette westward for the next 36 hours. After that time, a break in the ridge northeast of Hawaii should cause the storm to slow down and move west-northwestward through the end of the forecast period. Again there have been no significant changes in the track guidance, and the updated NHC track forecast remains very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 15.1N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 15.2N 128.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.4N 130.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 15.7N 132.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 16.3N 134.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 17.5N 137.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 18.5N 140.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 19.5N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Hurricane EARL Forecast Discussion Number 8

2016-08-04 10:54:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040854 TCDAT5 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 The center of Earl made landfall just southwest of Belize City, Belize near 0600 UTC. The last reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included a 700-mb flight-level wind of 85 kt, SFMR and dropsonde winds near 65 kt, and a minimum central pressure near 979 mb. Based on these data, the landfall intensity is estimated to have been 70 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is reduced to 65 kt as Earl is now weakening over land. The initial motion is 275/13. A high pressure ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward for the next three days or so. There is some spread in the track guidance that is significant for the chances of the system emerging over the Bay of Campeche. The ECMWF and the GFS show a more northward motion, which would bring the center over water. The UKMET shows a more westward motion, which would keep the center over southeastern Mexico south of the Bay of Campeche. The new forecast track is closer to the GFS and ECMWF in having the center traverse the southern Bay of Campeche between 36-48 hours. Overall, the new track is an update of the previous track that lies near the various consensus models. Earl should weaken as it crosses Central America and Mexico, and it is expected to be a tropical depression by the time the center reaches the Bay of Campeche. The cyclone is forecast to spend less than 12 hours over water, so the intensity forecast shows no re-intensification during that time. After 48 hours, Earl or its remnants should move over the mountains of central Mexico, which should cause the low-level center to dissipate after 72 hours. It should be noted that several global models forecast the development of a tropical cyclone off the Pacific coast of Mexico during the next five days. If this occurs, it is likely to be associated with the remnants of the hurricane, but not a direct continuation of Earl. The biggest concern with Earl is rainfall. Global models depict the system becoming enveloped within a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre that will cover much of southern Mexico during the next few days. This weather pattern will likely lead to copious rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 17.3N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/1800Z 17.8N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0600Z 18.3N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1800Z 18.6N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/0600Z 19.0N 96.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/0600Z 19.5N 99.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND/REMNANT LOW 96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion forecast earl

 

Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 7

2016-08-04 10:53:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040853 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 200 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2016 Shear and the entrainment of dry mid-level air appear to have taken a toll on Ivette, as the thunderstorm activity has decreased in coverage and organization during the past 12 hours or so. Recent microwave and geostationary satellite pictures show very little banding features and a significant displacement of the convection to the south and southwest of the low-level center. Despite the decrease in organization, overnight ASCAT data showed 35 to 40 kt winds over the northern semicircle of the tropical cyclone. Therefore, the initial wind speed remains 40 kt for this advisory. A UW/CIMMS shear analysis and the SHIPS model suggest that the shear may be beginning to decrease, however the current lack of organization and nearby dry air is likely to prevent significant intensification today. However, strengthening is still anticipated by tonight or Friday when Ivette is forecast to be over warm water and in a low shear environment. After day 3, cooler waters and increasing southwesterly shear should begin the weakening process. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous advisory, but remains above the statistical guidance, and it is closer to the HWRF that still brings Ivette to hurricane intensity in a couple of days. Ivette continues to move just north of due west at about 13 kt. The tropical storm should continue moving westward during the next 36 hours as it remains to the south of a strong subtropical ridge. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken when a trough deepens to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. This should cause Ivette to turn west-northwestward and slow down. There is very good agreement among the track guidance this morning and higher than normal confidence in the track forecast. The new NHC track forecast is near the multi-model consensus and is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.7N 124.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.8N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 14.9N 129.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 15.2N 131.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 15.8N 133.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 16.9N 136.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 18.3N 140.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 19.3N 143.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [863] [864] [865] [866] [867] [868] [869] [870] [871] [872] [873] [874] [875] [876] [877] [878] [879] [880] [881] [882] next »