Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Hurricane EARL Forecast Discussion Number 7

2016-08-04 04:53:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040253 TCDAT5 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 Earl has been under close surveillance by Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes and the Belize Meteorological Service radar this evening. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 72 kt which converts to a surface wind of 65 kt, and this is used for the advisory intensity. Belize radar imagery shows that the eyewall has been fluctuating between an open and closed structure over the past several hours. There is little time left for Earl to strengthen before the center reaches the coast, and no significant intensification is anticipated before landfall. A steady weakening trend will commence after the tropical cyclone moves inland. Based on the latest track guidance, the center is forecast to only barely emerge into the extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Thursday, and this should limit reintensification at that time. Earl is expected to become a remnant low and dissipate over the high mountains of south-central Mexico by the weekend or sooner. Earl continues to move slightly north of due west or 280/13 kt. The cyclone remains embedded in a well-defined steering flow to the south of a large and slow-moving mid-tropospheric high pressure system. Little change has been made to the previous official forecast track and the current NHC forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus. After landfall, the biggest concern with Earl is rainfall. Global models depict the system becoming enveloped within a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre that will cover much of southern Mexico in a couple of days. This weather pattern will likely lead to copious rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 17.4N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 17.7N 89.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0000Z 18.2N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1200Z 18.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0000Z 18.8N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/0000Z 20.0N 98.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion forecast earl

 

Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 6

2016-08-04 04:51:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040251 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 800 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 Moderate northeasterly vertical shear continues to afflict Ivette, as the deep convection is asymmetric with most of the cold cloud tops southwest of the center. A blend of the TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak, the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak, and AMSU estimates gives an intensity of 40 kt, unchanged from the previous advisory. A pair of ASCAT scatterometer passes around 18Z indicates that Ivette remains small sized, but slightly larger in tropical-storm-force wind radii than previously estimated. The scatterometer passes and an AMSR2 image at 2023Z suggested that Ivette's center was farther south than previously analyzed. This was confirmed by the brief appearance of the low-level center in geostationary visible imagery, as it peeked out from the edge of the deep convection. Ivette is moving toward the west at 14 kt, along the southern edge of a deep-layer subtropical ridge extending westward from Mexico. The tropical cyclone should continue moving toward the west or west-northwest at a slightly slower rate of forward speed for the next few days. The NHC track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered global and regional hurricane models, and is slightly south of the previous advisory because of the southward revision to the initial position. The continuing steady state of Ivette would argue for little change in the short term, but the global models insist that the vertical shear should be diminishing now. The NHC intensity forecast assumes that the shear will lower during the next two to three days while the SSTs are quite warm and the atmosphere is moist and unstable, leading to a steady intensification of Ivette. Beyond day three, the vertical shear should ramp up again out of the southwest as a large upper-level trough approaches Ivette while the SSTs cool, causing Ivette to gradually weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the SHIPS and HWRF models, and is slightly below that from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 14.6N 123.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 14.7N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 14.9N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 15.1N 130.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 15.5N 132.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 16.7N 136.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 18.0N 140.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 19.0N 143.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 5

2016-08-03 22:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 032035 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 200 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 Ivette continues to display a sheared convective pattern with the low-level center located to the north-northeast of the deepest convection. Recent ASCAT data shows that the maximum winds are near 40 kt, which is also an average of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The vertical shear affecting the cyclone is still expected to diminish during the next 24 hours, and sea surface temperatures will be between 27-28C for the next 3 to 4 days. Therefore, strengthening is anticipated, with a peak intensity likely occurring in about 3 days. Most of the intensity models still don't show significant intensification even though the shear gets quite low in a couple of days. For now, the NHC official intensity forecast leans on persistence and continues to be near the high end of the intensity guidance. Incidentally, the HWRF model has come in a little stronger on this cycle and now shows Ivette getting near the threshold of a category 2 hurricane. The initial motion remains 295/15 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north is expected to turn Ivette westward by tonight, with that heading continuing through 48 hours. After that time, a break in the ridge to the northeast of Hawaii is forecast to cause Ivette to turn back to the west-northwest and slow down on days 3-5. Confidence in the track forecast remains high through day 5 due to a tightly packed guidance envelope, and the official NHC track forecast is relatively close to the previous forecast and the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 14.9N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 15.2N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 15.4N 127.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 15.5N 129.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 15.8N 131.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 17.0N 135.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 18.5N 139.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 19.5N 142.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Hurricane EARL Forecast Discussion Number 6

2016-08-03 22:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 032031 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane which was recently in Earl did not measure any hurricane-force winds, and the satellite presentation has not changed much during the past few hours. The cloud pattern continues to have a couple of cyclonically curved convective bands with an intermittent banding type eye. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this advisory. The cyclone still has several hours over the warm waters of the Gulf of Honduras, and there are no apparent inhibiting factors to impede Earl to strengthen a little. The NHC forecast still calls for Earl to become a hurricane before landfall in Belize. NOAA and US Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes will be in the area later today. There has been no significant change in track, and the best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. Steering flow is very well established, and this pattern will continue to move Earl over Belize and the Yucatan peninsula. Earl is expected to be over water in the southern Bay of Campeche for only a few hours, reducing the chances of re-intensification there. Earl has become a larger system, and its hazards, primarily rainfall, will affect a large portion of Central America, the Yucatan peninsula and eastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.1N 86.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 17.5N 87.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 18.0N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0600Z 18.2N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1800Z 18.5N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1800Z 18.5N 97.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion forecast earl

 

Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 5

2016-08-03 16:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 031452 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane left Earl about 3 hours ago, and found that the cyclone was a little stronger. Since that time, the cloud pattern presentation on satellite has improved, and Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest that Earl could be a hurricane. An Air Force plane just reached the cyclone and measured a central pressure of 991 mb with 26 kt from a dropsonde, but so far no hurricane-force winds. So, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt. The only factor which could inhibit additional strengthening today is the interaction of the circulation with Central America, but nonetheless Earl is expected to increase a little in intensity before landfall in Belize early Thursday. After landfall, weakening is anticipated, and only slight strengthening is possible if the center of the cyclone moves over the Bay of Campeche. Earl has continued to move generally westward about 12 kt. The cyclone is well embedded within the deep easterly flow around a strong and persistent high pressure system over the United States. This pattern should continue to steer Earl on a general westward track over Belize and Yucatan, and the latest guidance suggests that the cyclone will remain over land or very near the coast over the southern Bay of Campeche. The short time over water reduces the chances of re-intensification. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 16.5N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 16.8N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 17.5N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0000Z 18.0N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1200Z 18.5N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [864] [865] [866] [867] [868] [869] [870] [871] [872] [873] [874] [875] [876] [877] [878] [879] [880] [881] [882] [883] next »