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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-08-03 04:56:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 030255 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 The deep convection associated with the tropical depression is showing some limited banding features in combination with a developing central dense overcast. Dvorak classification numbers are gradually rising, though a blend of TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS-ADT values still indicates an intensity of about 30 kt. A 1941Z AMSR2 microwave image indicated that the center of the system was slightly farther north than earlier indicated. Extrapolating forward in time from that point suggests a center that is near the northeastern edge of the deep convection, perhaps reflecting the moderate northeasterly shear affecting the cyclone. The initial motion is assessed at a fast 17 kt toward the west-northwest, primarily due to the steering of an east-west extended deep-layer ridge to its north. The tightly packed track guidance suggests a turn toward the west at a slightly slower rate of forward speed during the next few days. The NHC track forecast is slightly north of the previous advisory for the next day due to the more northerly initial motion, and then nearly the same out through the end of the period. This is supported by the global and HWRF model consensus. The system should only gradually intensify during the next day or so because of the moderate northeasterly shear and as the system develops an inner core structure. A more steady strengthening is anticipated out to about day three as the shear relaxes and the system moves over 28C water and through a very moist and unstable atmosphere. Around day four or five, the cyclone may start gradually weakening as SSTs decrease and the shear increases again. The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN consensus and peaks just slightly higher than that from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 13.9N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 14.5N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 15.1N 123.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 15.4N 126.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 15.7N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 16.5N 133.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 18.5N 142.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-08-02 22:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022034 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Earl a few hours ago and measured flight-level winds of about 54 kt in the northeast quadrant on its last leg. It also measured a minimal central pressure of 1002 mb. Another Air Force plane will be in Earl tonight along with the NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft. The satellite presentation has not changed significantly during the day, and Dvorak T-numbers, along with the plane data, yield an initial intensity of 45 kt. Global models have consistently forecast a little better environment, and the NHC forecast calls for some strengthening. Earl could be near hurricane strength as it approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Belize. It appears that Earl has slowed down as anticipated, and is now moving westward or 275 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the deep easterly flow on the south side of a ridge. This flow pattern will continue to steer Earl on a general west to west-northwest track with a gradual decrease in forward speed across Belize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next 2 days or so. After that time, Earl will likely move over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche where it could re-intensify some. There is good confidence with this track scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 16.4N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.5N 83.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 17.0N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 17.5N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 18.0N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1800Z 19.0N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 06/1800Z 20.0N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-08-02 22:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 022033 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 Satellite images indicate the area of low pressure well southwest of mainland Mexico has become better organized. ASCAT data indicate the center is fairly well defined, with curved banding features forming around the surface center. Thus tropical cyclone advisories are being initiated on this system. Dvorak estimates and the ASCAT data support an initial wind speed of 30 kt. Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next few days while the cyclone remains over warm water, with weak-to-moderate shear and high mid- level humidity. The official forecast is a bit higher than the model consensus, since most of the guidance has had a low bias this season. ASCAT and microwave data give a relatively confident initial motion of 290/15. A strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is expected to steer the cyclone relatively quickly to the west over the next few days. The ridge is forecast to weaken on days 4 and 5, which should cause a decrease in forward speed while the system approaches the central Pacific. Track guidance is in remarkable agreement for the first advisory, and the official forecast is near, but slightly faster than, the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 13.3N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 13.9N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.5N 121.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 15.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 16.1N 132.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 16.9N 136.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 18.0N 140.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-08-02 17:58:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 021557 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the strong wave we have been tracking for days has developed a closed circulation center with an estimated pressure of 1001 mb. On this basis, advisories on Tropical Storm Earl have been initiated. This is the fifth tropical storm of the 2016 hurricane season. The overall convective pattern was a little less organized this morning, but recent images indicate that an area of deep convection is forming near or over the center. The upper-level outflow is not well established yet in all quadrants due to some shear. Most of the global models show that the upper-level environment should become more favorable with less shear. The NHC forecast calls for some intensification, and Earl is expected to be near hurricane strength by the time the center approaches the Yucatan peninsula. Earl has been moving westward rapidly around 19 kt embedded within very strong easterly flow around the periphery of the Atlantic subtropical high. The ridge extends westward across the southern United States, and this pattern should maintain the cyclone on a general westward track across Belize and Yucatan during the next couple of days. After that time, a weakened Earl should move over the southern Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico. The cyclone should slow down during the next 12 to 24 hours since the steering currents are expected to be weaker. Most of the dynamical guidance agree on this scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1600Z 16.3N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 16.3N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 17.0N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.5N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 18.0N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1200Z 19.2N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 06/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-08-02 16:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 021437 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 Howard's convective structure has not changed much since the previous advisory with the low-level center located just inside the southern edge of a ragged central dense overcast. The initial intensity remains 50 kt, which is supported by a blend of CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Howard's center is now moving over sea surface temperatures between 25-26C, and it should reach sub-24C waters in about 24 hours. Vertical shear, on the other hand, probably won't be too hostile for another 2 to 3 days. Therefore, gradual weakening is forecast to begin in 12-24 hours and should continue through the end of the forecast period. The intensity guidance is holding Howard's intensity up a little longer compared to previous cycles, and the updated NHC intensity forecast follows this trend beginning at the 48-hour forecast period, lying close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. At this point, it is expected that vertical shear would cause Howard to become post-tropical by 72 hours, which is also a little later than indicated in previous advisories. It should be noted that the IVCN intensity consensus is 5-10 kt higher than the official forecast on days 3-5, so additional adjustments to the forecast intensity and cyclone status may be necessary if it appears that Howard could hold on as a tropical cyclone longer than currently anticipated. The initial motion remains 295/13 kt. Howard is located near the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, which is expected to build westward during the next 24 hours. As a result, the storm should continue west-northwestward for the next 48 hours, followed by a westward motion on days 3-5 once the cyclone becomes post-tropical and is steered by the low-level trade winds. There is very little spread among the track models, and the NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.8N 128.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.7N 130.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.8N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.6N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 22.2N 139.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 22.8N 145.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 06/1200Z 23.0N 150.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z 23.0N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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