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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 29

2016-07-10 04:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100233 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 The cloud pattern has degraded significantly tonight, and the deep convection has practically vanished. However, given the vigorous circulation still associated with Blas, it is estimated that the winds are 35 kt. Due to cold waters and high shear, global models and the intensity guidance weaken the cyclone fast. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Blas to degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours or less. Blas' circulation is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 10 kt. Now that the cyclone is quickly becoming a shallow system, it is forecast to be steered westward or west-southwestward by the low-level flow until dissipation in a couple of days. Blas could still produce sporadic bursts of convection in the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 21.2N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 21.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 21.5N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1200Z 21.0N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 20.5N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 13

2016-07-09 22:41:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 092041 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 The cloud pattern of Celia currently features a small central dense overcast with outer bands present in all quadrants except the north. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now 55 kt, and earlier AMSU estimates from CIMSS and CIRA were also near 55 kt. This value will be the initial intensity. The cyclone currently has good cirrus outflow over the western semicircle. The storm has moved due west for the past few hours. However, the longer-term motion is 275/12. A westward motion south of the subtropical ridge is expected to continue for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a west-northwestward motion as the storm approaches a break in the ridge. There has been little change in the guidance since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast. The short-term intensity forecast is tricky even though Celia is now moving over increasing sea surface temperatures. The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model indicates a 50 percent chance of 25-35 kt of strengthening during the next 24 hours, and this is supported by the forecasts of the SHIPS model and the Florida State Superensemble. However, the lack of bands in the northern quadrant suggests that the storm is still struggling with stable air caused by the cold wake of Hurricane Blas, and it is unclear how long this will continue. The intensity forecast is thus conservative in calling for 20 kt of intensification in 24 hours, followed by some additional strengthening to a peak intensity of 90 kt by 48 hours. However, it would not be a surprise for Celia to become a major hurricane. After 48 hours, Celia will gradually move over cooler water which should cause a gradual weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 14.3N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 14.4N 119.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 14.5N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 14.5N 124.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 14.8N 126.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 18.0N 134.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 28

2016-07-09 22:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 092039 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 Blas continues to decay. The intensity and coverage of the associated deep convection has been shrinking throughout the day, and the remaining cold cloud tops are mainly confined to the northwestern portion of the circulation. The Dvorak T-numbers are falling, and a blend of the latest classifications support lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt. The storm is currently over cool 24 C waters and embedded in a dry air mass. These conditions combined with an increase in southwesterly shear should cause the system to degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday. The global models show the remnant low dissipating in about 4 days, and that is reflected in the official forecast. The weakening system is still moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A turn toward the west is predicted over the next day or so when Blas becomes an even shallower system and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC official track forecast has been adjusted a little to the south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 20.8N 133.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 21.1N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 21.2N 136.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0600Z 21.0N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 20.6N 141.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 19.5N 145.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 27

2016-07-09 16:49:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 091449 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 Satellite images indicate that Blas continues to weaken. The associated deep convection has been shrinking in coverage and gradually losing organization during the last several hours. Accordingly, the Dvorak T-numbers are falling and a blend of the latest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that the initial intensity has decreased to near 50 kt. Blas is currently over cool 24 C waters and embedded in a fairly stable air mass. These unfavorable conditions combined with a notable increase in southwesterly wind shear during the next couple of days should allow the weakening trend to continue. Blas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours and dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt located on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. A gradual turn to the west is expected over the next day or two while the cyclone becomes shallower and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies closest to the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 20.1N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 20.8N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 21.3N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 21.5N 137.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1200Z 21.2N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 20.5N 144.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 19.8N 148.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 11

2016-07-09 10:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090835 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 The cool wake from Hurricane Blas continues to affect Celia. The convective pattern is quite ragged, with a small CDO feature but little in the way of convective banding. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Celia should begin moving over warmer waters during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should allow for an increase in convective organization and some strengthening. Celia is forecast to peak in about 72 hours and then move over cooler waters again, which should result in slow weakening late in the period. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest SHIPS model and is a bit above the latest intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 290/11, as Celia has accelerated since the previous advisory. A westward motion to the south of a building subtropical ridge is expected to begin later today and continue through 48 hours. After that time, the cyclone should reach the southwestern edge of the ridge and turn west-northwestward at a slightly slower speed. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one through 48 hours, but a little faster given the quicker initial motion. At days 3 through 5 the NHC track has been shifted a little to the south of the previous one and lies slightly north of the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 14.2N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 14.7N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 14.7N 122.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 14.8N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 15.7N 128.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 17.1N 131.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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