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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 4
2016-07-03 22:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 03 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 032035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 2100 UTC SUN JUL 03 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 111.4W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 111.4W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 110.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 12.8N 113.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.4N 115.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.9N 117.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.3N 120.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.5N 124.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.8N 128.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 18.4N 132.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 111.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm BLAS Graphics
2016-07-03 17:12:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2016 15:06:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2016 15:06:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-07-03 16:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 031439 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 900 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 Satellite imagery indicates a marked increase in organization of the Blas' cloud pattern overnight, suggesting that the cyclone is quickly intensifying. The center is located underneath a ball of deep convection, the latter which appears to be a formative central dense overcast. The large-envelope cyclone also has a lengthening band that consists of very cold-topped convection in the shape of a figure six. Satellite classifications are T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB at 1200 UTC, respectively. The initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, based on a blend of the two intensity estimates. The initial motion estimate is 285/11. Blas is forecast to move along the southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge centered over northern Mexico throughout the forecast period, which should keep the cyclone on a general west-northwesterly course. The model guidance is in very good agreement through 72 hours, but diverges after that time. The GFS and its ensemble mean lie near the previous forecast and is on the northern side of the guidance envelope, while the ECMWF and its ensemble mean are much farther south. The differences between the two models appear related to subtle variations in the strength and position of the subtropical ridge forecast after day 3. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a bit south of the previous one, on the southern side of the guidance envelope through 72 hours and near the multi-model consensus after that time. There does not appear to be anything obvious on the large-scale to impede intensification over the next few days, except that the cyclone will be very gradually departing the warmest waters over the basin. The light-easterly-shear, moist environment and warm waters should allow Blas to strengthen into a major hurricane as indicated in about 48 hours. The official NHC forecast through that time is heavily weighted toward the statistical guidance which is performing well, considering the current developmental trend. By 96 hours, even though the shear is forecast to remain low, the cyclone should be moving over steadily cooler waters and entering a drier and more stable environment. This should foster a weakening trend, though the weakening will likely occur only gradually. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 11.6N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 12.1N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 12.6N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 13.1N 116.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 13.6N 118.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 14.6N 123.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 16.0N 127.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 17.3N 131.3W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-07-03 16:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 031437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CLIPPERTON IS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Summary for Tropical Storm BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-03 16:36:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS QUICKLY STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Jul 3 the center of BLAS was located near 11.6, -110.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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