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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-07-04 10:54:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040854 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 300 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016 During the past few hours, the satellite appearance of Blas has changed from consisting of primarily a long curved band to a large central dense overcast (CDO) feature. Recent AMSU data showed that a nearly closed mid-level eye feature with a diameter of about 35 nmi has also developed within the southwestern portion of the CDO. A 0420 UTC ASCAT pass revealed surface winds near 50 kt in the northeastern quadrant and a radius of maximum winds of about 30 nmi. UW-CIMSS ADT estimates were near 55 kt. These data support an intensity of 55 kt at 0600 UTC. However, since that time the satellite signature has improved, so the advisory intensity has been increased to 60 kt. The initial motion estimate remains a steady 285/10 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast reasoning and the latest NHC model guidance suite remains tightly packed. Therefore, the new forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track due to the subtropical ridge to the north of Blas remaining strong throughout the entire forecast period. The new NHC forecast closely follows the consensus model TVCE and basically lies down the middle of the guidance envelope. The atmospheric and oceanic environment is expected to be quite favorable for Blas to strengthen during the next 48-60 hours. Since the global models are forecasting Blas' outflow pattern to gradually expand and become more symmetrical, along with the development of both poleward and equator outflow channels, a period of rapid intensification is expected for at least the next 24 hours. Blas is expected to achieve its peak intensity around 48 hours or so when the vertical wind shear is forecast to be low at around 5 kt. After that, gradual weakening should begin by 72 hours when Blas will be moving over sub-26C SSTs, creating cold upwelling/mixing beneath the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is well above the consensus model IVCN, and closely follows the LGEM statistical-dynamical intensity model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 12.7N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 13.2N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 13.8N 117.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 14.2N 119.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 14.8N 122.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 16.1N 126.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 17.5N 130.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 19.4N 133.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2016-07-04 10:53:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040853 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0900 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-04 10:53:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS MORNING... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 the center of BLAS was located near 12.7, -113.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm BLAS Public Advisory Number 6
2016-07-04 10:53:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040853 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 300 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016 ...BLAS STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 113.2W ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 113.2 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general west-northwestward to westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Blas is expected to become a hurricane later this morning and be near major hurricane strength by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 6
2016-07-04 10:52:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040852 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0900 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 113.2W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 113.2W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 112.7W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.2N 114.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.8N 117.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.2N 119.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.8N 122.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.1N 126.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 130.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 19.4N 133.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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