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Hurricane BLAS Public Advisory Number 8

2016-07-04 22:38:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 042038 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016 ...BLAS MOVING STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 115.7W ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 115.7 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is still forecast, and Blas could become a major hurricane on Wednesday. Blas is becoming a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Hurricane BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2016-07-04 22:38:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 042038 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 2100 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 8

2016-07-04 22:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 042038 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 2100 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 115.7W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 130SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 115.7W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.1N 117.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.6N 120.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.1N 122.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.6N 124.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.8N 128.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 18.2N 131.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 20.0N 135.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 7

2016-07-04 16:43:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041443 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 900 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016 Blas' cloud pattern consists of a large mass of cold-topped central convection and a couple of fragmented outer bands. A 1027 UTC SSM/I pass revealed a ragged mid-level eye feature, but the low-level structure appeared less organized. Dvorak satellite classifications were T4.0/65 kt and T4.5/77 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Taking into account the overnight ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is set at 65 kt, the low end of the intensity estimates. The initial motion estimate is unchanged at 285/11. The track forecast remains straightforward. Blas is expected to be steered along the southern side of a deep-layer subtropical ridge extending westward from northern Mexico and the southern United States during the next 3-4 days. The cyclone should reach the western periphery of the ridge by days 4-5, which should result in a turn nearly toward the northwest. The model guidance is in relatively good agreement throughout the forecast period, though the GFS and ECMWF models diverge some after day 3. The NHC track forecast does not deviate much from the previous one and is north of the southernmost ECMWF owing to the forecast of a strong hurricane, more like the GFS solution indicates. The large-scale environment surrounding Blas is characterized by light to moderate northeasterly shear and a rich supply of moisture. Coupled with warm-enough waters, Blas should intensify into a large and intense hurricane during the next couple of days once it establishes a better organized inner core. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lean heavily on the statistical guidance, some of which strengthens Blas even more than the current forecast. Around 72 hours, even though the shear should still be low, the hurricane should enter a drier and more stable environment and begin traversing sub-26 deg C waters. This should promote a slow weakening trend that will accelerate after 96 hours once Blas moves over much cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.3N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 13.6N 116.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 14.1N 118.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 14.6N 121.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 15.1N 123.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 16.3N 127.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 17.8N 131.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 19.8N 134.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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