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Tropical Storm BLAS Public Advisory Number 3
2016-07-03 16:36:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 031436 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 900 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 ...BLAS QUICKLY STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 110.3W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 110.3 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and Blas should become a hurricane by Monday, and is expected to become a major hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-07-03 16:36:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 031436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 110.3W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 110.3W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 109.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.1N 112.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 12.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.1N 116.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.6N 118.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.6N 123.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 127.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.3N 131.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-07-03 10:59:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030858 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that a long curved band of convection now wraps at least half way around the low-level center. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have increased as result, with TAFB coming in at T2.5/35 kt and SAB at T3.0/45 kt. Therefore, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Blas. The initial motion estimate is 285/12, based heavily on microwave fix positions. Overall, there is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Blas is expected to move along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located over northern Mexico and the southern United States. This stable steering pattern should keep Blas moving in a general westward to west-northwestward direction for the next 120 hours. The NHC track forecast is slightly north of the previous forecast track, and closely follows the consensus track model TVCE. Environmental conditions appear favorable for steady strengthening during the next 72 hours as Blas moves over SSTs of 29-30C and encounters decreasing vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt. The new NHC intensity forecast shows Blas becoming a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane by Wednesday. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by 96 hours or so as the cyclone starts to move over 26C or cooler seas-surface temperatures, which should result in some cold upwelling or mixing beneath Blas. The official forecast is above the intensity consensus IVCN, and close to the previous intensity forecast and a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 11.7N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 12.0N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 12.6N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 13.1N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 13.6N 117.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 14.6N 122.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 15.8N 126.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 17.3N 130.1W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm BLAS Graphics
2016-07-03 10:44:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2016 08:44:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2016 08:41:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-07-03 10:43:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 03 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 030842 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0900 UTC SUN JUL 03 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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