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Hurricane BLAS Public Advisory Number 10
2016-07-05 10:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 050834 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 ...BLAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 118.1W ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 118.1 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a motion toward the west-northwest or west is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Blas is forecast to become a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 10
2016-07-05 10:33:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050833 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0900 UTC TUE JUL 05 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 118.1W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 118.1W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 119.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 122.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.4N 124.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 126.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.2N 129.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 19.1N 133.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.7N 136.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 118.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-07-05 04:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050234 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016 Blas is gradually gaining strength. A ragged eye has been occasionally evident in geostationary satellite images and the inner core of the hurricane appears a little better organized than it was earlier today. In fact, a recent SSMIS microwave overpass showed an eye feature within the symmetric CDO. The latest Dvorak classifications and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support raising the initial intensity to 75 kt. The hurricane is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening for another 36 hours as the wind shear is expected to be less than 10 kt with sufficiently warm water and a considerable amount of moisture. The official NHC intensity forecast remains at the upper end of the guidance during that time and calls for Blas to reach major hurricane status. In about two days, however, the system is forecast to move over sea surface temperatures of around 26 C and into a more stable air mass, which should end the strengthening phase and promote a steady weakening trend. Blas is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end of the period when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures near 24 C. Blas continues to move west-northwestward at about 12 kt on the south side of a sprawling mid-level ridge over Mexico and the eastern Pacific Ocean. The models are in very good agreement in showing a continued west-northwestward motion during the next 3 to 4 days while the ridge remains the primary steering mechanism. There is some divergence in the model solutions by the end of the forecast period, with the GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models showing a more northern track while the ECMWF and HWRF models have a track farther south. This spread is associated with differences in how much Blas interacts with a cut off low north of the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 14.0N 116.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 14.4N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 14.9N 121.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 15.3N 123.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 15.8N 125.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 17.1N 129.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 18.9N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 20.7N 135.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane BLAS Graphics
2016-07-05 04:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Jul 2016 02:33:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Jul 2016 21:06:14 GMT
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Hurricane BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2016-07-05 04:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 05 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 050232 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0300 UTC TUE JUL 05 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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