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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-07-04 04:36:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040236 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 900 PM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 The satellite presentation of Blas has not changed much since the previous advisory, with the cyclone featuring large convective bands and a developing CDO feature. A GCOM/AMSR-2 image from 2042 UTC showed a mid-level eye feature displaced about 30 n mi southwest of the low-level center, consistent with about 10 kt of northeasterly shear. Satellite classifications remain T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and that is the initial intensity. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Blas should continue to strengthen at a steady rate for the next 48 hours over warm SSTs and in a low to moderate shear environment. After 48 hours the SSTs cool steadily along the forecast track, especially at days 4 and 5, and quick weakening is forecast by then. The NHC intensity forecast is close to or a bit above the SHIPS model at the high end of the guidance through 48 hours, and trends toward the weaker LGEM late in the period. Its worth noting that the HWRF and GFDL models are much weaker with Blas compared to the statistical models for this cycle. The initial motion estimate is 285/10. The dominant steering mechanism through the forecast period is a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico and extending westward across the eastern Pacific. This feature should steer Blas on a general westward to west-northwestward track through the forecast period. The track model guidance is in very good agreement with small spread through day 4, but the spread increases a bit at day 5. By then the GFS shows more of a poleward turn as the ridge is eroded by a closed mid/upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, while the ECMWF and UKMET show less influence from the upper low. The new NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions and is in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 12.4N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 12.9N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 13.5N 116.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 14.0N 118.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 14.5N 121.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 15.9N 125.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 17.3N 129.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 19.1N 132.9W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-04 04:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR MONDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 the center of BLAS was located near 12.4, -112.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm BLAS Public Advisory Number 5
2016-07-04 04:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 900 PM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 ...BLAS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 112.2W ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 112.2 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Blas is forecast to become a hurricane overnight or early Monday and be near major hurricane strength on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-07-04 04:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0300 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 5
2016-07-04 04:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0300 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 112.2W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 112.2W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 12.9N 113.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.5N 116.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.0N 118.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 121.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.9N 125.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 17.3N 129.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.1N 132.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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