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Summary for Hurricane BLAS (EP3/EP032016)

2016-07-04 16:41:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...BLAS NOW A HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 the center of BLAS was located near 13.3, -114.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane BLAS Public Advisory Number 7

2016-07-04 16:41:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 041441 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 900 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016 ...BLAS NOW A HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 114.4W ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 114.4 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Blas is forecast to become a major hurricane on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Hurricane BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2016-07-04 16:41:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 041441 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 1500 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 7

2016-07-04 16:41:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 041441 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 1500 UTC MON JUL 04 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 114.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 114.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.6N 116.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.1N 118.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.6N 121.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.1N 123.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.3N 127.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.8N 131.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 19.8N 134.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 114.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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