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Hurricane BLAS Graphics
2016-07-05 23:07:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Jul 2016 20:45:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Jul 2016 21:04:37 GMT
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-07-05 22:55:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052055 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 Blas has the classic appearance of a powerful hurricane in satellite imagery this afternoon, with a 20 n mi wide eye embedded in a symmetric central dense overcast which in turn is almost surrounded by outer convective bands. Satellite intensity estimates are 115 kt from SAB and 102 kt from TAFB, and a recent CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique estimate is 110 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 110 kt, making Blas the first major hurricane of the eastern Pacific season. Blas continues its westward movement with an initial motion of 275/14. For the next 72 hours or so, the hurricane should be steered generally westward to west-northwestward by a deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Pacific. This portion of the new forecast track is an update of the previous track. After 72 hours, the forecast confidence decreases as the track guidance diverges. The GFS, UKMET, NAVGEM, and Canadian models turn Blas northwestward between the ridge and a large mid- to upper-level low centered to the northeast of the Hawaiian islands. In contrast to the other models, the ECMWF forecasts the low to move westward with mid-level ridging developing between it and Blas. Thus, it forecasts Blas to turn westward by 120 hours. The new forecast track is similar to the old track in showing a west-northwestward motion at 96 and 120 hours, with the track lying between the ECMWF and the other models. Blas should remain in a light-shear environment over warm water for the next 12-24 hours or so, and some additional strengthening is possible during this time. While the shear is expected to be light to moderate during the forecast period, the cyclone should move over decreasing sea surface temperatures after 24 hours which should cause a steady weakening. The new forecast intensity is similar to that of the previous advisory and calls for Blas to decay to a remnant low over cold water by 120 hours. However, if the ECMWF track verifies, the system would stay over warmer water and likely remain a tropical cyclone at 120 hours and beyond. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 14.3N 120.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 14.6N 122.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 15.1N 124.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 15.7N 126.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 20.0N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 21.1N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-05 22:45:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS BECOMES THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 5 the center of BLAS was located near 14.3, -120.9 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane BLAS Public Advisory Number 12
2016-07-05 22:45:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 052045 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 ...BLAS BECOMES THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 120.9W ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 120.9 West. Blas is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Blas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible tonight. After that, Blas is expected to weaken beginning Wednesday night or Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2016-07-05 22:45:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 05 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 052045 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 2100 UTC TUE JUL 05 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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