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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 11
2016-07-05 16:49:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 051449 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 1500 UTC TUE JUL 05 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 119.5W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 119.5W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 119.1W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.4N 121.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.8N 123.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.4N 125.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 127.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.4N 130.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 19.1N 134.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 20.6N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 119.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane BLAS Graphics
2016-07-05 10:42:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Jul 2016 08:42:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Jul 2016 08:34:37 GMT
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-07-05 10:41:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050841 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 Blas has continued to strengthen since the previous advisory. The CDO has improved and the overall convective cloud pattern has become more symmetrical. A ragged eye feature has been evident in infrared imagery and is now completely surrounded by cloud tops colder than -75C. Recent AMSU and ASCAT overpasses have helped to place the center a little to the northeast of the positions noted in conventional infrared imagery. The initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and NHC objective intensities ranging from T4.7-T5.0, and the continued improvement in the eye pattern depicted in conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Based primarily on microwave satellite fixes, Blas continues to move west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. The hurricane is forecast to move in a general west-northward direction throughout the forecast period due to a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge remaining nearly stationary to the north of Blas. The latest NHC global and regional model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this stable steering pattern, and the models are tightly packed around the previous advisory track. Therefore, only minor tweaks were made, and the new forecast track lies close to the consensus track model TVCE. Blas has been rapidly strengthening over the past 24 hours, and an additional 12 hours or so of significant strengthening is supported by an expanding upper-level outflow pattern, low vertical wind shear values decreasing to less than 5 kt by 12-24 hours, and a smaller radius of maximum winds of about 15 nmi noted in recent ASCAT data. Although vertical shear values are expected to remain low, by 36-48 hours Blas will be moving over SSTs near 26C and ocean heat content values near zero, which should result in cooling of the ocean beneath the hurricane and begin a slow weakening trend. By 72 hours and beyond, Blas will be moving over even cooler water and into a drier and more stable air mass, negative factors which should combine to induce more significant weakening. The official intensity forecast remains well above he consensus model IVCN and closely follows the GFS-based LGEM statistical-dynamical intensity model, which has thus far handled Blas' intensification trend the best. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 14.2N 118.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 14.5N 119.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 15.0N 122.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 15.4N 124.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 16.0N 126.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 17.2N 129.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 19.1N 133.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 20.7N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2016-07-05 10:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 05 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 050834 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0900 UTC TUE JUL 05 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-05 10:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 5 the center of BLAS was located near 14.2, -118.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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