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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 12
2016-07-05 22:44:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 052044 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 2100 UTC TUE JUL 05 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 120.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.6N 122.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.1N 124.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.7N 126.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 20.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.1N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 120.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-07-05 16:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 051453 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 Blas has been intensifying rapidly this morning. Satellite imagery shows a ragged eye that has been warming and becoming better defined in the middle of a large-sized central dense overcast (CDO). A special Dvorak satellite classification from TAFB suggests that the cyclone is close to major hurricane status, so the initial intensity is boosted to 95 kt, and this could be conservative. Blas has been moving nearly due westward since the last advisory, with a longer-term initial motion estimate of 280/13. For about the next 72 hours, the track model output is in good agreement that Blas should be steered westward and then west-northwestward around the southern and western periphery of a deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Pacific. After that time, there is a rather significant divergence in the track guidance. The bulk of the model solutions indicate a northwestward track when Blas interacts with a cut-off low well northwest of it and encounters weaker ridging. The ECMWF and its ensemble mean, however, predict a much more southerly track in response to a stronger subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast track is adjusted to the south of the previous one, owing mostly to the more westerly initial motion. The track forecast is closer to the ECMWF solution beyond day 3, based on the premise that Blas should weaken significantly and become a shallow cyclone during that time. Given that Blas is undergoing rapid intensification, the short-term forecast shows a significant increase in intensity within the next 12 to 24 hours and is above all of the numerical guidance. Later in the period the hurricane should be moving over cooler waters, so a gradual weakening trend is expected to commence in about 48 hours. If Blas follows a more southern route than anticipated, however, it could weaken more slowly than shown here. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.1N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 14.4N 121.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 14.8N 123.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.4N 125.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.0N 127.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 17.4N 130.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 19.1N 134.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 20.6N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2016-07-05 16:51:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 05 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 051451 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 1500 UTC TUE JUL 05 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Hurricane BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-05 16:50:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS NOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 5 the center of BLAS was located near 14.1, -119.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane BLAS Public Advisory Number 11
2016-07-05 16:50:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 051450 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 ...BLAS NOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 119.5W ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 119.5 West. Blas is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion should continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west- northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is likely, and Blas is expected to become a major hurricane today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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