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Summary for Tropical Storm OLAF (EP4/EP192015)

2015-10-17 10:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL STORM OLAF STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 17 the center of OLAF was located near 9.5, -128.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm OLAF Public Advisory Number 10

2015-10-17 10:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 170832 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM OLAF STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 128.5W ABOUT 1540 MI...2475 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 128.5 West. Olaf is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Olaf could become a hurricane later tonight or Sunday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Advisory Number 10

2015-10-17 10:31:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 17 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 170831 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0900 UTC SAT OCT 17 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 128.5W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 128.5W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 128.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.5N 129.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 9.7N 131.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.1N 133.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 10.7N 134.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.2N 137.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 14.2N 140.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 16.3N 141.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 128.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm OLAF Graphics

2015-10-17 05:05:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Oct 2015 02:35:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Oct 2015 03:05:46 GMT

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Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 9

2015-10-17 04:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 170234 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 The cloud pattern of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E has continued to become better organized during the past several hours. There is now a persistent convective area near the center and ragged outer bands in the western semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to 45 kt from SAB and 35 kt from TAFB. In addition, Rapidscat data from the International Space Station showed an area of 30-35 kt winds just north of the central convection. Based on these data, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Olaf with 35 kt winds. The initial motion estimate is now 270/12. Olaf is currently being steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge. The dynamical models forecast the ridge to persist but weaken during the next 72-96 hours due to the influence of a strong deep-layer trough forecast to develop over the southwestern United States. This evolution should cause Olaf to continue westward with a decrease in forward speed during the first 36-48 hours, followed by a west-northwestward motion from 48-96 hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to break to the east of the Hawaiian Islands, which should allow the storm to turn more northward. The track guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, with the ECMWF, GFS, and the various consensus models rather tightly clustered. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 hours, then is nudged slightly westward thereafter. The new track is close to the model consensus. Olaf is expected to remain in an environment of good moisture, light shear, and warm sea surface temperatures for at least the next three days, so there is no obvious reason it should not strengthen. On one side of the guidance, the LGEM forecasts Olaf to become a major hurricane in 72 hours, and the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows a 30-35 percent chance of 30 kt of strengthening during the next 24 hours. On the other side, the GFDL and HWRF forecast a much slower rate of intensification. The new intensity forecast is nudged upward from the previous forecast based on current trends and is a compromise between the SHIPS model and the Florida State Superensemble. As stated in the previous advisory, given the very conducive large-scale environment, it would not be surprising to see more strengthening than is currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 9.7N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 9.7N 129.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 9.7N 130.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 10.0N 132.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 10.5N 133.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 12.0N 137.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 14.0N 140.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 16.5N 141.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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