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Tropical Storm OLAF Public Advisory Number 11
2015-10-17 16:43:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 171443 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 ...OLAF STILL STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.4N 129.5W ABOUT 1595 MI...2570 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 129.5 West. Olaf is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected later today, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Olaf is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Sunday, and be near major hurricane strength Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Advisory Number 11
2015-10-17 16:43:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 17 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 171443 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 1500 UTC SAT OCT 17 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 129.5W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 129.5W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 129.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 9.5N 130.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 9.8N 132.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 10.3N 134.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.0N 135.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.6N 139.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 14.7N 141.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.9N 142.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.4N 129.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm OLAF Graphics
2015-10-17 11:05:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Oct 2015 08:32:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Oct 2015 09:05:45 GMT
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olaf
Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-10-17 10:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 170833 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 The convective organization of Olaf has continued to improve since the previous advisory. A ragged CDO feature has developed, but very cold overshooting cloud tops with temperatures of -87C to -88C have also developed near the low-level circulation center as depicted in recent passive microwave satellite images. In addition, outer curved band features have also improved to the north and south of the center while the upper-level outflow pattern has expanded and become more symmetrical. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on a consensus satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, which is supported by a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T3.4/53 kt and an 0134 UTC AMSU intensity estimate of 59 kt. The initial motion estimate is now 270/10 kt. The NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Olaf rounding the southwestern and western periphery of a deep-layer ridge during the next five days, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. On day 5, the cyclone could begin to recurve and accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast as suggested by the GFS model, but the preponderance of the guidance keeps Olaf south of ridge axis and moving generally northward at that time, and this is reflected in the official forecast. The new track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and essentially lies down the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the consensus models. Microwave imagery suggests that the aforementioned intense burst of convection has likely tightened up the inner-core wind field and has reduced the size of the radius of maximum winds (RMW). Given the small RMW of about 20 nmi, the expanding outflow pattern, continued deep-layer vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt, and mid-level humidity values expected to increase to around 70 percent, a period of rapid intensification is forecast to occur for the next 24 hours. After that, the intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening through 72 hours, followed by a leveling off in the intensity on days 4 and 5 due to possible eyewall replacement cycles that are impossible to forecast that far in advance. The new intensity forecast is close to the LGEM intensity model through 72 hours, and then is lower than the LGEM model and closer to the SHIPS model on days 4 and 5. As mentioned in previous advisories, it would not be surprising to see more strengthening than is currently forecast given the very conducive large-scale environment, similar to the 96-h GFS and ECMWF model forecasts of a 938-mb and 956-mb hurricane, respectively. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 9.5N 128.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 9.5N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 9.7N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 10.1N 133.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 10.7N 134.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 12.2N 137.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 14.2N 140.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 16.3N 141.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm OLAF Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2015-10-17 10:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 17 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 170833 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0900 UTC SAT OCT 17 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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