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Hurricane OLAF Public Advisory Number 16
2015-10-18 22:39:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 182039 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 ...OLAF MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.7N 134.3W ABOUT 1550 MI...2495 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1850 MI...2980 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 134.3 West. Olaf is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This westward motion is expected to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the west- northwest Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Olaf could be near major hurricane strength by Monday night or Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane OLAF Forecast Advisory Number 16
2015-10-18 22:38:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 18 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 182038 TCMEP4 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 2100 UTC SUN OCT 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 134.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 134.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 9.9N 135.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 10.3N 137.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.0N 139.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.8N 140.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.7N 143.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 16.0N 145.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 18.0N 145.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.7N 134.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane OLAF Graphics
2015-10-18 17:09:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Oct 2015 14:35:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Oct 2015 15:05:43 GMT
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Hurricane OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-10-18 16:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 181436 TCDEP4 HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 The could pattern of Olaf features a CDO with a primary convective band extending into the southern and western semicircles. A 0726Z GPM image showed a well-defined low- and mid-level eye, and the initial intensity has been nudged upward to 70 kt, a little above the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Further strengthening appears likely for the next couple of days while the hurricane moves over warm waters and through a generally low-shear environment. The SHIPS RI index continues to suggest that rapid intensification is possible, with a 47 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is along the upper edge of the guidance, closest to the LGEM forecast. By 72 hours, the cyclone will be moving over somewhat cooler waters with a slight increase in shear, which should result in slow weakening late in the period. Olaf continues to move quickly westward, with an initial motion estimate of 275/10. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Olaf expected to gradually turn poleward during the forecast period as the subtropical ridge initially to the northwest of Olaf lifts northward and weakens. The track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but continues to trend toward a more gradual northward turn. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 9.5N 133.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 9.7N 134.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 10.2N 136.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 10.8N 138.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 11.6N 139.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 13.5N 142.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 15.5N 143.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 17.8N 144.1W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane OLAF Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2015-10-18 16:35:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 18 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 181435 PWSEP4 HURRICANE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 1500 UTC SUN OCT 18 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 2(17) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 23(42) 6(48) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 4(20) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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