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Hurricane OLAF Forecast Advisory Number 17

2015-10-19 04:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 19 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 190240 TCMEP4 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0300 UTC MON OCT 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 135.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 135.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 135.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 9.9N 136.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 10.3N 138.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.0N 140.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.9N 141.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.7N 144.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 16.1N 145.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 18.2N 145.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.7N 135.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane OLAF Graphics

2015-10-18 23:05:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Oct 2015 20:44:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Oct 2015 21:05:47 GMT

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Hurricane OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 16

2015-10-18 22:55:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 182055 TCDEP4 HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 Olaf hasn't changed much in organization during the past few hours, with satellite imagery still showing a CDO and a large, but broken, convective band in the western and southern semicircles of the cyclone. There appears to be a dry slot working into the western side of the circulation, and the eye has been less distinct in recent microwave imagery than it was earlier. The initial intensity remains 70 kt, a little higher than the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii were adjusted based on a timely 1815Z ASCAT-B overpass. The pause in strengthening could be due to the aforementioned dry air and moderate west-northwesterly to northwesterly shear analyzed over the cyclone by the SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS. Given the shear and an inner-core that may be a little less organized, the new NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of strengthening in the first couple of days, and is now closer to the bulk of the intensity guidance. The forecast still shows Olaf becoming a major hurricane in 2-3 days followed by a slow decay as the hurricane moves over somewhat cooler SSTs late in the period. The NHC prediction is close to the SHIPS model through much of the period, but a little above it at peak intensity. Olaf continues to move quickly westward, with a motion now estimated at 280/12. This continues a trend of the hurricane moving faster and to the left of the previous couple of forecasts. While the subtropical ridge to the north weakens is still expected to weaken and lift northward, the track model guidance continues to shift westward given the initial motion and Olaf failing to gain as much latitude as previously thought in the short term. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left of the previous one, especially at days 3 through 5, and is now close to a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 9.7N 134.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 9.9N 135.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 10.3N 137.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 11.0N 139.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 11.8N 140.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 13.7N 143.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 16.0N 145.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 18.0N 145.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane OLAF Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2015-10-18 22:40:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 18 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 182040 PWSEP4 HURRICANE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 2100 UTC SUN OCT 18 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 4(17) 3(20) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 23(54) 5(59) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) 4(27) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Summary for Hurricane OLAF (EP4/EP192015)

2015-10-18 22:39:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...OLAF MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Oct 18 the center of OLAF was located near 9.7, -134.3 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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