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Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 13

2015-10-18 04:39:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180239 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 After the pause noted in the previous advisory, Olaf has resumed intensification this evening. Well-defined convective bands with cloud tops colder than -80C have formed around the center, and microwave data show a developing 15 n mi wide eye. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to 55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and there is a recent CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate of 52 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt. The initial motion is 270/8. Olaf is now moving slower as the subtropical ridge to the north weakens in response to the influence of a mid- to upper-level trough near the U. S. west coast. A general west-northwestward motion is expected for the next two days or so as the cyclone moves on the south side of the weakened ridge. After that time, a second mid- to upper-level trough passing north of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to cause a break in the ridge, allowing Olaf to turn northwestward by 72 hours and northward by 120 hours. There is little overall change in the guidance since the last advisory. Thus, the new forecast track is very similar to the previous track and lies near the center of the track guidance envelope. There is still some light northwesterly shear over Olaf. However, this is forecast to diminish during the next 24 hours, and improving cirrus outflow suggests this may already be occurring. Based on this, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist environment, continued strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. After 72 hours, developing southerly shear and dry air entrainment are expected to cause Olaf to weaken. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the Florida State Superensemble. It should be noted that the small inner core seen in microwave imagery could allow rapid intensification, and the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model has a 25-30 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. Should this occur, Olaf could get significantly stronger than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 9.2N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 9.4N 132.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 9.9N 134.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 10.4N 135.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 11.2N 137.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 13.5N 140.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 15.5N 142.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 18.0N 142.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm OLAF Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2015-10-18 04:39:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 18 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 180239 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0300 UTC SUN OCT 18 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 6(25) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Advisory Number 13

2015-10-18 04:38:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 18 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 180238 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0300 UTC SUN OCT 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 131.0W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 131.0W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 130.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 9.4N 132.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 9.9N 134.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 10.4N 135.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.2N 137.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.5N 140.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 15.5N 142.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.0N 142.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.2N 131.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Storm OLAF (EP4/EP192015)

2015-10-18 04:38:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...OLAF STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 17 the center of OLAF was located near 9.2, -131.0 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm OLAF Public Advisory Number 13

2015-10-18 04:38:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 180238 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 ...OLAF STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.2N 131.0W ABOUT 1685 MI...2715 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 9.2 North, longitude 131.0 West. Olaf is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Olaf is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or on Sunday. The cyclone is also expected to be near major hurricane strength by Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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