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Hurricane OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-10-19 10:42:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190842 TCDEP4 HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 The overall satellite presentation of the hurricane has not changed since the previous advisory. The ragged eye that was seen in the last few visible satellite pictures has not become apparent in overnight infrared images, but recent microwave data have indicated the presence of a small well-defined eye. Objective and subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates still support an initial wind speed of 85 kt. Olaf is expected to remain over warm water and in a low vertical wind shear environment during the next several days. These factors favor intensification and Olaf is expected to become a major hurricane during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, some additional strengthening is forecast, but fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall cycles. The new NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is near the upper-end of the intensity guidance, closest to the SHIPS/LGEM models. Some gradual weakening is shown at days 4 and 5 when Olaf moves over slightly cooler waters and into an area of drier mid-level air. Recent satellite and microwave fixes show that Olaf is moving westward or 280/10 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Olaf is expected to move around the southwestern and western portions of a deep-layer subtropical ridge during the next several days. The hurricane is forecast to turn west- northwestward later today before it moves into the Central Pacific basin tonight. A northwestward motion is expected in 2 to 3 days, and a turn toward the north should occur late in the period when Olaf nears a break in the ridge along 145W. The new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory through 72 hours, but has been adjusted westward at days 4 and 5 to be closer to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 10.0N 136.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 10.3N 137.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 10.8N 139.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 11.4N 141.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 12.3N 142.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 14.3N 144.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 19.0N 146.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane OLAF (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-19 10:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 19 the center of OLAF was located near 10.0, -136.4 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane OLAF Public Advisory Number 18
2015-10-19 10:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190841 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 ...OLAF FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 136.4W ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1965 MI...3160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 136.4 West. Olaf is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Olaf is forecast to become a major hurricane by tonight. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane OLAF Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2015-10-19 10:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 19 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 190841 PWSEP4 HURRICANE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0900 UTC MON OCT 19 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 3(22) 1(23) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 45(54) 11(65) 2(67) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 9(34) 1(35) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) 1(20) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 10(24) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane OLAF Forecast Advisory Number 18
2015-10-19 10:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 19 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 190841 TCMEP4 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0900 UTC MON OCT 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 136.4W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 136.4W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 136.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 10.3N 137.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 10.8N 139.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.4N 141.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.3N 142.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.3N 144.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 146.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 136.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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