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Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Advisory Number 12

2015-10-17 22:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 17 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 172032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 2100 UTC SAT OCT 17 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 130.5W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 130.5W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 130.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 9.3N 131.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 9.8N 133.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 10.3N 135.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.0N 136.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.9N 139.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 15.2N 142.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.3N 142.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.2N 130.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Storm OLAF Graphics

2015-10-17 16:51:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Oct 2015 14:44:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Oct 2015 14:50:47 GMT

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Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 11

2015-10-17 16:46:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 171446 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015 Olaf's cloud pattern has not exhibited much overall change since the last advisory in conventional satellite imagery. The cyclone is characterized by a small CDO with one primary band over the western half of the circulation, though the band is detached from the main convective mass and fragmented. The convective distribution is suggestive of some northwesterly shear, as shown in GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS output, but a partial 1030 UTC AMSU pass indicated a mid-level eye, perhaps not completely coincident with the low-level center. Dvorak intensity estimates are consensus T3.0/45 kt, but the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt on the basis of the greater organization seen in microwave imagery. The initial motion estimate is 270/11. The mid-level subtropical ridge steering Olaf westward is about to weaken in response to the long tail of a mid- to upper-level trough near the U.S. west coast settling southward to the north of the cyclone. The weaker ridge should induce a slower forward speed with a gradual increase in latitude during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, a large anticyclone forming in the east-central subtropical Pacific near 140W is forecast to shift eastward while a weakness develops along 150W. Global models show Olaf moving in the flow between these two synoptic features, which should result in a northwestward and then north-northwestward turn after 96 hours. The official track forecast is nearly unchanged through 36 hours. After that time, the track forecast is shifted westward in agreement with a leftward- shifting multi-model consensus and a majority of ECMWF ensemble members that were farther west than the operational ECMWF solution that lies east of the multi-model consensus. The new track forecast is on the western side of the guidance envelope. Except for the northwesterly shear, there are no obvious impediments to continued strengthening for the next few days. Exactly how much the shear is a factor, however, remains to be seen, but its most likely effect would be to possibly slow the rate of intensification. According to the SHIPS output, the northwesterly shear diminishes after 36 hours, and with all other large-scale factors favoring intensification, Olaf is likely to become a major hurricane in 2 or 3 days. Late in the forecast period, once Olaf gains enough latitude, a drier environment with an increase in southerly or south-southwesterly shear should result in weakening. The official intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus through 36 hours and generally above it after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 9.4N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 9.5N 130.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 9.8N 132.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 10.3N 134.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 11.0N 135.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 12.6N 139.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 14.7N 141.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 16.9N 142.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Storm OLAF Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2015-10-17 16:46:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 17 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 171446 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 1500 UTC SAT OCT 17 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Summary for Tropical Storm OLAF (EP4/EP192015)

2015-10-17 16:43:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...OLAF STILL STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 17 the center of OLAF was located near 9.4, -129.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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