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Summary for Hurricane OLAF (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-18 16:34:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Oct 18 the center of OLAF was located near 9.5, -133.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane OLAF Public Advisory Number 15
2015-10-18 16:34:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 181434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 ...OLAF A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 133.2W ABOUT 1620 MI...2610 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1795 MI...2890 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 133.2 West. Olaf is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Olaf could become a major hurricane by late Monday or Monday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane OLAF Forecast Advisory Number 15
2015-10-18 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 18 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 181434 TCMEP4 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 1500 UTC SUN OCT 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 133.2W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 90SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 133.2W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 132.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 9.7N 134.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 10.2N 136.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 10.8N 138.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.6N 139.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.5N 142.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 15.5N 143.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.8N 144.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 133.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane OLAF Graphics
2015-10-18 11:09:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Oct 2015 08:52:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Oct 2015 09:05:48 GMT
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Hurricane OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-10-18 10:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180851 TCDEP4 HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 Olaf has intensified overnight. Satellite images show that convection has deepened with a sizable area of -90C cloud tops near the center, along with an eye occasionally appearing on the night-visible channel. Microwave data also show that the eye has become better defined, and the feature has even become more distinct in the lower resolution AMSU data. With the appearance of the eye in conventional satellite data and the increase in convection near the center, the initial wind speed is set to 65 kt, near the Dvorak estimate from SAB. It is also worth noting that ASCAT data show that Olaf has also grown in size significantly from yesterday, and this is reflected in the larger initial and forecast wind radii. Olaf should continue to intensify during the next couple of days with favorable environmental conditions of low shear, warm water and high mid-level moisture in the forecast. Rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, with the SHIPS-RI index showing about a 40 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in the next 24 hours. The intensity forecast will bring Olaf up to major hurricane strength in 36 hours, in line with the highest guidance from the LGEM model and the Florida State Superensemble. In a few days, some southerly shear and dry air entrainment is possible, which could lead to Olaf beginning a weakening trend. Little change was made to the long range intensity forecast, close to a blend of the previous NHC prediction and the intensity consensus. ASCAT and satellite data were very helpful in determining an initial motion of 275/8. A motion to the west and then west- northwest is expected for the next two days or so while the cyclone moves on the south side of the subtropical ridge. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough passing north of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to cause a break in the ridge, allowing Olaf to turn northwestward by 96 hours and northward by 120 hours. Although guidance is in general agreement on the large-scale pattern, the timing of the northward turn is in some question, especially since Olaf has been struggling to gain latitude. Overall, the guidance has generally been showing a later turn, with the ECMWF/UKMET models having a weaker trough and less of a ridge breakdown. The NHC track forecast is shifted west toward the latest consensus aids, although it still lies east of the model consensus. At 9.4N, Olaf is the lowest-latitude hurricane formation in the eastern Pacific dataset. Reliable records in the basin go back to about 1971. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 9.4N 131.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 9.6N 133.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 10.0N 135.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 10.6N 136.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 11.3N 138.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 13.3N 141.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 15.0N 143.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 17.5N 143.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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