je.st
news
Tag: sergio
Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-10-02 16:33:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 514 FOPZ11 KNHC 021433 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 115W 34 81 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 10N 115W 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 10N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 61(77) 16(93) 1(94) X(94) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 32(69) 1(70) X(70) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 30(46) X(46) 1(47) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 34(48) 7(55) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 5(22) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 7(24) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
speed
wind
sergio
Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-10-02 16:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 185 WTPZ21 KNHC 021432 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 113.5W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.3N 119.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.9N 122.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 114.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
sergio
Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-02 10:53:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 08:53:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 08:53:52 GMT
Tags: graphics
sergio
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-10-02 10:52:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 255 WTPZ41 KNHC 020852 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that Sergio continues to strengthen. The center is located within a fairly symmetric CDO with cloud tops of -70 to -80 degrees C. Earlier microwave data showed a well-defined eye and inner core, but a more recent AMSU overpass suggests that there has been some slight erosion of the eastern portion of the eye, possibly due to some intrusion of dry mid-level air. Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 75 to 90 kt, and the initial intensity has been increased to a possibility conservative 75 kt for this advisory. The intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain. Although Sergio has developed an inner core and strengthened during the past 12 hour or so, the dynamical models suggest northeasterly shear will increase over the hurricane today. This is expected to temper the intensification somewhat over the next 12-24 hours, however, most of the guidance shows at least gradual strengthening during the next day or so. The NHC intensity forecast calls for a gradual increase in wind speed over the next 36-48 hours, and is close to the IVCN model consensus. After 72 h, cooler waters and the entrainment of drier air is expected to cause gradual weakening. Sergio is moving slightly south of due west or 265/12 kt. The hurricane is currently located to the south of a mid-level ridge, and Sergio should continue westward today. The global models show the western portion of the ridge weakening over the next several days, which should cause Sergio to turn west-northwestward, then northwestward on Wednesday. By late in the week, another ridge is predicted to build to the northwest of Sergio and the hurricane is forecast to turn back toward the west. The overall guidance envelope has changed little this cycle, and the new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 10.7N 113.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 10.9N 114.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 11.7N 116.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 12.7N 117.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 13.8N 119.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 15.6N 121.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 16.5N 124.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 16.7N 127.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
sergio
Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-02 10:52:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 2 the center of Sergio was located near 10.7, -113.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Tags: summary
sergio
hurricane
Sites : [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] next »