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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 12

2018-10-02 10:52:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 327 WTPZ21 KNHC 020852 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 113.2W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 113.2W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 112.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 10.9N 114.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.7N 116.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 119.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.6N 121.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.5N 124.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.7N 127.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 11

2018-10-02 04:58:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018 797 WTPZ41 KNHC 020258 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 PM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018 A just-received GMI overpass indicates that Sergio has become better organized with formation of a well-defined eye and eyewall under a convective overcast with cloud tops to -85C. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 55-65 kt range, and based on the improved structure, the intensity will be set at the upper end of that range. Thus, Sergio is upgraded to a hurricane. The intensity forecast is low confidence. The better structure of Sergio is now conducive for rapid intensification. However, the large-scale models forecast northeasterly vertical shear to increase to 20-25 kt by 24 h, which should be strong enough to stop rapid development, although the guidance suggests at least slow strengthening during this time. The intensity forecast follows the guidance trend in calling for gradual strengthening, but there could be a 12-h or so burst of rapid intensification before the shear gets too strong. The shear should subside after about 36 h while Sergio is still over warm water, and the forecast shows the system becoming a major hurricane near the 72 h point in response to the more favorable conditions. After 72 h, a combination of decreasing sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track and entrainment of drier air should lead to gradual weakening. The initial motion is 265/12. As stated in the previous discussion, a westward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next day or so while the storm remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast by late Tuesday, followed by a northwestward motion on Wednesday as the western portion of the mid-level ridge erodes due to a large scale mid- to upper-level trough near the southwestern United States. By the end of the forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the north of Sergio, which should cause a turn back toward the west. The track guidance has changed little since the last advisory, and the new NHC track is close to both the previous forecast track and the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 10.9N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 11.2N 113.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 11.7N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 12.6N 117.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 13.7N 118.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 16.0N 121.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 17.0N 124.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Sergio Graphics

2018-10-02 04:52:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 02:52:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 02:52:57 GMT

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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2018-10-02 04:50:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 881 FOPZ11 KNHC 020250 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 115W 34 2 37(39) 3(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 10N 115W 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) 10N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 55(88) 1(89) 1(90) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 52(59) 2(61) 1(62) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 1(39) 1(40) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 1(18) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 10(39) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 16(36) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)

2018-10-02 04:50:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SERGIO BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Oct 1 the center of Sergio was located near 10.9, -112.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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