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Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2014-09-16 22:48:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 162048 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-16 17:12:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 14:47:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 15:06:48 GMT
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-09-16 16:47:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 161447 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 Visible satellite images show that Edouard has an impressive satellite presentation, displaying a well-defined eye within the central dense overcast. Edouard is upgraded to a major hurricane based on a subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of 102 kt from TAFB, an ADT estimate of 107 kt, and a recent SFMR surface wind of 97 kt in the southwest eyewall. Edouard is the first major hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, and the first category 3 or greater hurricane in the basin since Sandy on October 25, 2012. Edouard is expected to reach its peak intensity within the next 12-18 hours while it remains in light shear conditions and over warm waters. A combination of decreasing SSTs and increasing shear should cause the hurricane to start a steady weakening by late tomorrow. The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the latest NHC forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction and the intensity consensus. Edouard is expected to become post-tropical by day 4, but this transition could even occur around day 3 due to rather cool waters in the cyclone's path. The initial motion is gradually shifting to the right, now 345/11. Edouard remains located to the west of the subtropical high and will turn northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours. An eastward acceleration is expected by 48 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores. The interaction of the low and the tropical cyclone is causing the model guidance to become more divergent at long range, with the GFS and the GFDL models taking the cyclone well north of the Azores. However, the GFS ensemble is much farther southwest than the deterministic GFS, and is much more consistent with the previous forecast and the bulk of the guidance. Thus, I have elected to leave the NHC prediction virtually unchanged from the previous one, even though the model consensus is a fair distance to the northeast of the new official track at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 31.1N 57.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 33.0N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 35.7N 54.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 38.4N 50.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 40.3N 45.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 41.0N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 40.0N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 21/1200Z 38.0N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-16 16:46:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD BECOMES THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 16 the center of EDOUARD was located near 31.1, -57.8 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 21
2014-09-16 16:46:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 161446 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 ...EDOUARD BECOMES THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 57.8W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1720 MI...2770 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EDOUARD IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME WEAKENING LIKELY TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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