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Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-15 05:11:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2014 02:55:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2014 03:05:48 GMT
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Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2014-09-15 04:58:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 150258 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-15 04:56:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD HEADING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...ONLY A THREAT TO MARINE INTERESTS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 14 the center of EDOUARD was located near 26.2, -53.3 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 15
2014-09-15 04:56:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150255 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 ...EDOUARD HEADING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...ONLY A THREAT TO MARINE INTERESTS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 53.3W ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-09-15 04:56:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150255 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 Edouard's cloud pattern has not changed much in organization this evening. Although the eye had become better defined and warmer, it has recently disappeared. Convective cloud top temperatures in the central dense overcast have also warmed during the past several hours. There is some evidence that dry air may be wrapping into portions of the inner core of the hurricane. Dvorak intensity estimates were a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity estimate is held at 75 kt. The environment ahead of Edouard is likely to become more conducive for intensification during the next day or two. While traversing warm waters, the shear is forecast to reach a minimum in 36-48 hours. The only inhibiting factor would seem to be dry environmental air wrapping around the circulation. After achieving a peak intensity near the point of recurvature, gradual weakening is likely to commence while the hurricane moves toward decreasing sea surface temperatures. A considerable increase in southwesterly shear and dramatically cooler waters should hasten the weakening trend beyond 72 hours. Edouard's interaction with a shortwave trough moving across Atlantic Canada in 4-5 days should lead to the beginning of extratropical transition at that time, but the guidance is not clear cut on a completion of this process by day 5. The intensity forecast is near or just above the multi-model consensus through 72 hours and near or a little below it at the end of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. Edouard should continue on a northwestward heading on the south side of subtropical ridge until the ridge retreats eastward in a day or so. This change in the steering pattern should result in Edouard's turning sharply northward in about 36 hours. The hurricane should then be captured by a strong mid-latitude westerly flow and accelerate northeastward in 3-4 days, and turn generally eastward with a decrease in forward speed by day 5. The track guidance has shifted significantly to the left this cycle, and the official forecast track has been moved in that direction. The new track forecast, however, lies on the far right side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 26.2N 53.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 27.2N 54.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 30.2N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 32.4N 56.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 37.4N 51.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 41.2N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 20/0000Z 41.2N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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